Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Pick – 4/23/2025

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to take on the Toronto Blue Jays on April 23, 2025, it’s worth noting that the Astros are currently sitting at 12-11, enjoying an above-average season, while the Blue Jays are slightly trailing with a 12-12 record, indicating average performance so far. This matchup is critical for both teams as they strive for momentum in a competitive American League.

In their last game, the Astros took a 5-1 win against the Blue Jays, which they will look to build on today. Ryan Gusto, projected to start for the Astros, has had a rocky season as indicated by his advanced-stat Power Rankings placement at 184th among MLB pitchers, despite his solid 3.18 ERA. Gusto has been effective in terms of run prevention, but his xFIP of 3.68 suggests he could be due for regression, especially considering his concerning averages of 5.2 hits and 1.3 walks allowed per projection.

On the other side, Bowden Francis, with a 3.13 ERA and a 4.04 xFIP, presents a strong case for the Blue Jays. Although both pitchers have been categorized as below-average by the projections, they will face off against offenses that struggle consistently. The Astros rank 24th in MLB in overall offensive production, while the Blue Jays sit just above at 20th, primarily buoyed by their 7th place standing in team batting average.

With both teams showing flaws in their lineups, Gusto’s flyball tendency could work in his favor against a Blue Jays offense that has only managed 13 home runs this season, the second-fewest in MLB. This matchup has the potential for a tightly contested game, with oddsmakers setting the Game Total at a standard 8.5 runs. The Astros, with their strong bullpen ranked 10th and the Blue Jays at 8th, may find their pitching depth advantageous in what promises to be a close and strategic battle at Minute Maid Park.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Because flyball hitters have a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Bowden Francis and his 39.4% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot in today's outing being matched up with 2 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 102.7-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 93.7-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Extreme groundball bats like Brendan Rodgers tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bowden Francis.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.8% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 26% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.77, Houston Astros 4.85

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays
  • Ryan Gusto - Astros

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