New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 4/23/2025

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees continue their series on April 23, 2025, with both teams showcasing strong early-season performances. The Guardians sit at 14-9, while the Yankees are just behind at 14-10. Both teams are in the thick of a competitive matchup, with significant implications as they seek to assert themselves in the American League.

In their last game, the Guardians edged out the Yankees in a one-run game, further tightening the competition in this series. The Guardians are projected to send right-hander Luis Ortiz to the mound. Despite a 2-2 record this season, his 5.48 ERA raises concerns, although his 3.76 xFIP suggests he might be due for a turnaround. Ortiz's ability to limit earned runs will be crucial, as he has been projecting to allow an average of 2.9 earned runs today, which isn’t encouraging.

On the other side, the Yankees will counter with lefty Carlos Rodon. With a 2-3 record and a 4.34 ERA, Rodon’s performance has been average, but his 3.38 xFIP indicates potential for better results. The Yankees' potent offense, ranked 1st overall in MLB, poses a significant threat, especially given their ability to hit home runs, leading the league in that category.

While the Guardians’ offense ranks 16th overall, their bullpen is a standout, holding the top spot in MLB Power Rankings. This may give them a fighting chance, especially considering the Yankees' bullpen is ranked 12th. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Guardians are slight underdogs with an implied team total of 3.92 runs, making this a fascinating matchup as both teams aim to find their rhythm in a tightly contested series.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon's four-seamer rate has dropped by 11.2% from last year to this one (49.4% to 38.2%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball bats like Aaron Judge generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Luis Ortiz.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Aaron Judge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 8th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among every team today, the best infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jhonkensy Noel has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Projected catcher Austin Hedges profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 45% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 4.96, Cleveland Guardians 4.2

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Luis Ortiz - Guardians

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