Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants Pick For 7/9/2024

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays

Jul 9, 2024

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Details

  • Date: July 9, 2024
  • Venue: Oracle Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays
    • Blake Snell - Giants

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Blue Jays 110, Giants -130
Runline: Blue Jays 1.5 -190, Giants -1.5 165
Over/Under Total: 7.5

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Toronto Blue Jays - 46% Toronto Blue Jays - 47.48%
San Francisco Giants - 54% San Francisco Giants - 52.52%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays are set to face off on July 9, 2024, at Oracle Park. Both teams are in the midst of below-average seasons, with the Giants holding a 44-47 record and the Blue Jays at 41-49. Despite their struggles, this interleague matchup promises intrigue, especially with Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi taking the mound.

Blake Snell, projected to start for the Giants, has had a rough year with a 0-3 record and an alarming 9.51 ERA. However, his 4.17 xFIP, an advanced peripheral indicator, suggests he has been unlucky and could improve. Snell is ranked the 40th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Despite his high strikeout rate (26.1 K%), he faces a Blue Jays offense that ranks 5th in least strikeouts, which might mitigate his strength. Furthermore, Snell’s high walk rate (11.8 BB%) could be problematic against a patient Blue Jays lineup that is 6th in drawing walks.

Yusei Kikuchi, on the other hand, brings a 4-8 record with a respectable 4.12 ERA to the table. Ranked 85th among starting pitchers, Kikuchi’s 3.43 xFIP indicates he's also been a bit unlucky this season. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings on average, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.7 batters. However, his projection of 5.0 hits and 1.8 walks per game could spell trouble against a Giants offense ranked 14th in MLB, especially considering their average ranking in team batting average and home runs.

The Giants' bullpen is a standout, ranked 1st in MLB, which provides a significant edge over the Blue Jays' bullpen, which ranks 22nd. This could be pivotal in a close game, with betting markets giving the Giants a slight edge with a -125 moneyline, implying a 53% win probability.

Offensively, Michael Conforto has been the Giants' best hitter over the past week, boasting a .313 batting average and a 1.200 OPS with 6 RBIs and a home run. For the Blue Jays, George Springer has been on fire, hitting .316 with a 1.119 OPS, 2 home runs, and 6 RBIs in the last 7 games.

With the Giants' bullpen advantage and Snell's potential for improvement, San Francisco might have the upper hand in this opening game of the series. However, Kikuchi’s steadiness and the Blue Jays' offensive patience make this a compelling matchup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Yusei Kikuchi has utilized his curveball 6.2% more often this season (25.5%) than he did last year (19.3%).

  • Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

There has been a decrease in Daulton Varsho's average exit velocity this year, from 87.8 mph last year to 84.9 mph now

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.3% underlying K%.

  • THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Heliot Ramos has been lucky this year, posting a .376 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .319 — a .057 deviation.

  • Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 59 games (+9.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 67 games (+8.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 17 away games (+7.80 Units / 46% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.28 vs San Francisco Giants 4.27

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+112
21% TOR
-131
79% SF

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-115
4% UN
7.5/-105
96% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-198
8% TOR
-1.5/+164
92% SF

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
TOR
Team Stats
SF
3.68
ERA
3.89
.238
Batting Avg Against
.247
1.24
WHIP
1.24
.294
BABIP
.302
8.0%
BB%
6.8%
25.1%
K%
23.1%
76.4%
LOB%
72.1%
.260
Batting Avg
.238
.415
SLG
.389
.746
OPS
.703
.331
OBP
.314
TOR
Team Records
SF
22-26
Home
28-22
23-28
Road
20-30
38-43
vRHP
37-33
7-11
vLHP
11-19
31-43
vs>.500
29-37
14-11
vs<.500
19-15
5-5
Last10
4-6
9-11
Last20
10-10
12-18
Last30
14-16
Y. Kikuchi
B. Snell
128.1
Innings
N/A
24
GS
N/A
9-4
W-L
N/A
3.44
ERA
N/A
9.26
K/9
N/A
2.45
BB/9
N/A
1.54
HR/9
N/A
84.2%
LOB%
N/A
15.9%
HR/FB%
N/A
4.35
FIP
N/A
3.88
xFIP
N/A
.244
AVG
N/A
24.9%
K%
N/A
6.6%
BB%
N/A
3.92
SIERA
N/A

Y. Kikuchi

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 NYY
Cortes N/A
W2-1 N/A
6
3
1
1
7
1
54-78
4/29 HOU
Urquidy N/A
L7-11 N/A
2.2
4
4
4
4
3
39-66
4/24 HOU
Garcia N/A
L7-8 N/A
3.2
3
4
2
4
5
44-77
4/19 BOS
Eovaldi N/A
L1-2 N/A
5
3
1
1
3
3
58-91
4/12 NYY
Cortes N/A
L0-4 N/A
3.1
5
3
2
2
2
49-84

B. Snell

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/10 ARI
Smith N/A
W10-5 N/A
0
0
0
0
0
0
-
9/12 LAD
Scherzer N/A
L0-8 N/A
0.2
0
0
0
0
0
5-8
9/7 LAA
Naughton N/A
L0-4 N/A
7
1
2
2
11
2
70-100
8/31 ARI
Gallen N/A
W3-0 N/A
7
0
0
0
10
2
67-107
8/25 LAD
Buehler N/A
L3-5 N/A
7.2
3
1
1
10
0
80-122

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
TOR SF
TOR SF
Consensus
+110
-124
+112
-131
+110
-130
+110
-130
+104
-122
+110
-130
+108
-125
+112
-130
+110
-130
+115
-135
+110
-135
+115
-135
Open
Current
Book
TOR SF
TOR SF
Consensus
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-175)
+1.5 (-201)
-1.5 (+166)
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+164)
-1.5 (+176)
+1.5 (-215)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+172)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+150)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-116)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-122)
8.0 (-104)
8.0 (-118)
7.5 (-104)
7.5 (-117)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-125)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)