Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Picks 7/9/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates

Jul 9, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

  • Date: July 9, 2024
  • Venue: American Family Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Quinn Priester - Pirates
    • Colin Rea - Brewers

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Pirates 140, Brewers -160
Runline: Pirates 1.5 -155, Brewers -1.5 135
Over/Under Total: 8.5

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Pittsburgh Pirates - 40% Pittsburgh Pirates - 49.27%
Milwaukee Brewers - 60% Milwaukee Brewers - 50.73%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates are set to clash on July 9, 2024, in a National League Central showdown at American Family Field. The Brewers, currently boasting a 53-38 record, are having a stellar season, while the Pirates, at 43-47, have struggled to find consistency.

Milwaukee will send Colin Rea to the mound, who, despite his impressive 8-2 record and a strong 3.34 ERA, ranks as the #246 starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Rea's peripheral stats suggest he's been fortunate so far, with a 4.53 xFIP indicating potential regression. On the other side, Pittsburgh's Quinn Priester, who has yet to secure a win this season (0-5) and holds a 4.83 ERA, has been unlucky with a 4.19 xFIP suggesting he might improve.

Offensively, the Brewers have been solid, ranking 8th overall and 4th in team batting average. Their lineup has also been bolstered by Christian Yelich, who has been on fire over the last week, hitting .391 with three home runs and a stellar 1.395 OPS. In contrast, the Pirates’ offense has struggled, ranking 27th overall and 24th in team batting average. Michael A. Taylor has been a bright spot for Pittsburgh lately, batting .444 over the last seven games.

The Brewers' bullpen is ranked 19th, which aligns with their year-to-date performance, while the Pirates' bullpen is a surprising 10th, outperforming their season-long results. Given these factors, Milwaukee enters the game as a -160 favorite with an implied win probability of 60%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Brewers a 52% chance to win, suggesting this might be a closer game than the odds indicate.

With the Brewers' potent offense and the Pirates' underachieving lineup, Milwaukee seems to have the edge. Yet, betting markets may be undervaluing Pittsburgh, making them an intriguing underdog play for risk-takers.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Considering the 1.17 difference between Quinn Priester's 5.68 K/9 and his 6.85 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to positively regress the rest of the season.

  • Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among all SPs, Colin Rea's fastball velocity of 91.6 mph is in the 23rd percentile this year.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Christian Yelich has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.4-mph figure.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 87 games (+13.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Colin Rea has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.45 Units / 101% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.89 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.7

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+137
14% PIT
-161
86% MIL

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-115
4% UN
8.5/-105
96% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-148
1% PIT
-1.5/+124
99% MIL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
PIT
Team Stats
MIL
4.60
ERA
4.04
.252
Batting Avg Against
.232
1.40
WHIP
1.22
.304
BABIP
.275
9.4%
BB%
8.2%
21.9%
K%
23.0%
70.4%
LOB%
73.6%
.235
Batting Avg
.233
.388
SLG
.377
.700
OPS
.689
.313
OBP
.312
PIT
Team Records
MIL
22-24
Home
28-15
23-24
Road
26-25
32-32
vRHP
41-28
13-16
vLHP
13-12
20-25
vs>.500
22-21
25-23
vs<.500
32-19
5-5
Last10
4-6
10-10
Last20
10-10
15-15
Last30
16-14
J. Fleming
C. Rea
N/A
Innings
100.1
N/A
GS
19
N/A
W-L
5-5
N/A
ERA
5.11
N/A
K/9
7.62
N/A
BB/9
2.87
N/A
HR/9
1.70
N/A
LOB%
68.7%
N/A
HR/FB%
16.5%
N/A
FIP
5.08
N/A
xFIP
4.50

J. Fleming

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 MIN
Winder N/A
L3-9 N/A
3.2
5
6
5
1
3
53-77
4/14 OAK
Irvin N/A
L3-6 N/A
3.1
7
5
3
6
1
45-67
8/11 BOS
Eovaldi N/A
L8-20 N/A
3.1
11
10
10
3
6
47-81
8/4 SEA
Gilbert N/A
W4-3 N/A
5
5
2
2
6
0
49-75
7/30 BOS
Perez N/A
W7-3 N/A
5
8
3
3
7
2
59-99

C. Rea

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/5 CHC
Gomber N/A
L1-5 N/A
2
5
4
4
3
2
27-46
8/15 MIL
Houser -107
L5-6 10
3.1
4
3
3
0
0
35-49

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
PIT MIL
PIT MIL
Consensus
+138
-167
+137
-161
+140
-166
+136
-162
+138
-164
+136
-162
+135
-159
+132
-157
+140
-165
+140
-165
+135
-165
+140
-165
Open
Current
Book
PIT MIL
PIT MIL
Consensus
+1.5 (-154)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-154)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+132)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+132)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+120)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-106)
8.5 (-116)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)