Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/9/2024

Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians

Jul 9, 2024

Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Details

  • Date: July 9, 2024
  • Venue: Comerica Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Ben Lively - Guardians
    • Kenta Maeda - Tigers

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Guardians -140, Tigers 120
Runline: Guardians -1.5 115, Tigers 1.5 -135
Over/Under Total: 8.5

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Cleveland Guardians - 56% Cleveland Guardians - 48.83%
Detroit Tigers - 44% Detroit Tigers - 51.17%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians face off in the second game of their series on July 9, 2024, at Comerica Park. The Tigers, with a 43-48 record, are struggling this season, while the Guardians are excelling with a 56-33 record. This American League Central matchup features two right-handed starters: Kenta Maeda for the Tigers and Ben Lively for the Guardians.

Kenta Maeda has had a tough season, posting a 6.71 ERA over 14 starts, but his 4.82 xFIP, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests he has been unlucky and could improve. Maeda is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 3.8 batters, which is below average. He faces a Guardians offense that ranks 12th in batting average and 10th in home runs, making it a challenging outing.

Ben Lively, on the other hand, has a solid 3.14 ERA over 14 starts, though his 4.16 xFIP indicates he may have been fortunate thus far. Lively is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.0 batters. He faces a Tigers offense that ranks poorly across the board: 26th overall, 24th in batting average, 21st in home runs, and 27th in stolen bases, making this a favorable matchup for him.

The Tigers’ bullpen is ranked 15th, while the Guardians boast the 2nd best bullpen, according to the Power Rankings. This adds to Cleveland’s edge late in the game. Colt Keith has been a bright spot for Detroit, hitting .370 with a 1.211 OPS over the last week. For Cleveland, Angel Martinez has been hot, hitting .462 with a 1.282 OPS in his last 5 games.

With Cleveland favored at -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, they look to continue their strong season against a struggling Detroit team. The Tigers' implied team total is 3.96 runs, while the Guardians' is 4.54 runs, suggesting a competitive but challenging game for Detroit.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Ben Lively projects to average a combined 5.4 strikeouts plus walks in today's outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today, David Fry is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.4% rate (89th percentile).

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Cleveland Guardians have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Kenta Maeda in today's game.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Mark Canha's average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 88.1-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 72.4-mph in the last 7 days.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Detroit Tigers have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 10.8° figure is among the lowest in the majors this year (#28 overall).

  • If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.00 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 74 games (+11.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 21% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.49 vs Detroit Tigers 4.38

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-140
71% CLE
+119
29% DET

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-115
15% UN
8.5/-105
85% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+114
96% CLE
+1.5/-135
4% DET

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CLE
Team Stats
DET
3.76
ERA
4.46
.240
Batting Avg Against
.244
1.27
WHIP
1.27
.286
BABIP
.289
8.3%
BB%
7.6%
21.3%
K%
22.2%
74.3%
LOB%
68.5%
.250
Batting Avg
.234
.380
SLG
.374
.693
OPS
.673
.313
OBP
.299
CLE
Team Records
DET
30-11
Home
22-23
27-24
Road
23-26
37-29
vRHP
35-41
20-6
vLHP
10-8
24-15
vs>.500
23-31
33-20
vs<.500
22-18
5-5
Last10
7-3
11-9
Last20
11-9
17-13
Last30
14-16
B. Lively
K. Maeda
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

B. Lively

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/26 ARI
Koch 118
L2-8 9
2.1
7
7
7
1
4
37-67
4/20 PIT
Nova -101
W2-1 8
6
5
1
1
4
3
56-96
4/15 TBA
Yarbrough -140
W10-4 8
4
7
3
3
5
0
41-66
4/9 CIN
Reed 119
W6-5 9
5.2
9
5
5
7
2
65-100
4/3 NYN
Harvey -125
L0-2 7.5
5.2
6
2
2
5
1
62-91

K. Maeda

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
8/21 NYY
Cole N/A
L1-7 N/A
4.1
4
5
5
5
1
46-87
8/14 TB
Wacha N/A
W12-0 N/A
6
3
0
0
4
1
47-76
8/8 HOU
Jr N/A
W7-5 N/A
5
6
3
3
5
3
63-100
8/3 CIN
Mahle N/A
W7-5 N/A
5
7
5
5
9
1
55-84
7/27 DET
Alexander N/A
L5-6 N/A
6.1
4
1
1
5
2
60-91

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CLE DET
CLE DET
Consensus
-147
+126
-140
+119
-148
+124
-142
+120
-162
+136
-142
+120
-143
+123
-139
+118
-145
+122
-145
+122
-145
+120
-145
+120
Open
Current
Book
CLE DET
CLE DET
Consensus
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-131)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+104)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-143)
-1.5 (+123)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-145)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-113)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-106)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)