Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet – 6/11/2024

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays

Jun 11, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

  • Date: June 11, 2024
  • Venue: American Family Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays
    • Carlos Rodriguez - Brewers

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Blue Jays -115, Brewers -105
Runline: Blue Jays -1.5 145, Brewers 1.5 -165
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Toronto Blue Jays - 51% Toronto Blue Jays - 56%
Milwaukee Brewers - 49% Milwaukee Brewers - 44%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers, having a strong season with a 39-27 record, will host the Toronto Blue Jays, who are struggling at 32-34, on June 11, 2024, at American Family Field. This interleague matchup is the second game in the series, and both teams enter with something to prove. The Brewers are enjoying a significant run, featuring one of MLB's top offenses, while the Blue Jays look to turn things around with solid pitching.

Milwaukee’s offense ranks 4th best in the league, boasting an impressive team batting average (3rd) and a strong penchant for stolen bases (3rd). This contrasts sharply with Toronto’s offense, which sits 19th overall, struggling particularly with power and speed, ranking 26th in home runs and 21st in stolen bases. On the mound for the Brewers will be right-handed Carlos Rodriguez, who despite an overall #123 pitcher ranking, faces a Blue Jays team that may not exploit his weaknesses effectively.

Rodriguez’s projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggest a middling performance, averaging 4.9 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed, 4.6 hits, 1.7 walks, and just 4.0 strikeouts. These projections aren't stellar, but they might be enough against a struggling Toronto offense. Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto’s starter, offers a mix of good and bad. With a 3.48 ERA and a moderate 5-5 record through 13 starts, he has shown flashes of brilliance. However, his projections indicate he might allow more hits (4.9) and earned runs (2.7) than desired, despite average strikeout numbers (5.5).

The Brewers’ bullpen, ranked 10th, is another advantage against Toronto’s 17th-ranked bullpen. With key hitters like Blake Perkins heating up recently, Milwaukee seems poised to capitalize on its offensive strengths. Perkins, with a .316 average and .929 OPS over the last 7 games, provides a spark.

Betting markets reflect a close game, with both teams set at -110 moneyline and a game total of 8.5 runs. Despite this, Milwaukee’s robust lineup, contrasted with Toronto’s offensive woes, could tilt the game in favor of the Brewers, giving them a slight edge in this tightly contested matchup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Out of all starters, Yusei Kikuchi's fastball velocity of 94.8 mph is in the 82nd percentile this year.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Daulton Varsho is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

  • This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Toronto's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the worst in the majors: #23 overall.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Rodriguez to throw 83 pitches in this matchup (8th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

  • Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Joey Ortiz is penciled in 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 66 games (+11.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.10 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+14.30 Units / 30% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.42 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.13

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-119
51% TOR
+100
49% MIL

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-115
19% UN
8.5/-105
81% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+142
93% TOR
+1.5/-170
7% MIL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
TOR
Team Stats
MIL
3.68
ERA
4.04
.238
Batting Avg Against
.232
1.24
WHIP
1.22
.294
BABIP
.275
8.0%
BB%
8.2%
25.1%
K%
23.0%
76.4%
LOB%
73.6%
.260
Batting Avg
.233
.415
SLG
.377
.746
OPS
.689
.331
OBP
.312
TOR
Team Records
MIL
18-19
Home
22-12
17-22
Road
22-21
30-32
vRHP
34-25
5-9
vLHP
10-8
18-26
vs>.500
16-17
17-15
vs<.500
28-16
3-7
Last10
5-5
8-12
Last20
10-10
14-16
Last30
17-13
Y. Kikuchi
Carlos F. Rodriguez
128.1
Innings
N/A
24
GS
N/A
9-4
W-L
N/A
3.44
ERA
N/A
9.26
K/9
N/A
2.45
BB/9
N/A
1.54
HR/9
N/A
84.2%
LOB%
N/A
15.9%
HR/FB%
N/A
4.35
FIP
N/A
3.88
xFIP
N/A
.244
AVG
N/A
24.9%
K%
N/A
6.6%
BB%
N/A
3.92
SIERA
N/A

Y. Kikuchi

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 NYY
Cortes N/A
W2-1 N/A
6
3
1
1
7
1
54-78
4/29 HOU
Urquidy N/A
L7-11 N/A
2.2
4
4
4
4
3
39-66
4/24 HOU
Garcia N/A
L7-8 N/A
3.2
3
4
2
4
5
44-77
4/19 BOS
Eovaldi N/A
L1-2 N/A
5
3
1
1
3
3
58-91
4/12 NYY
Cortes N/A
L0-4 N/A
3.1
5
3
2
2
2
49-84

Carlos F. Rodriguez

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
TOR MIL
TOR MIL
Consensus
-112
-104
-119
+100
-118
-102
-122
+102
-112
-104
-116
-102
-115
-103
-114
-103
-115
-105
-120
+100
-115
-105
-120
+100
Open
Current
Book
TOR MIL
TOR MIL
Consensus
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+141)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-166)
-1.5 (+142)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+146)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-166)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+148)
+1.5 (-182)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-104)
8.5 (-117)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.0 (-122)
8.0 (+100)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)