Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/11/2024

Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies

Jun 11, 2024

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins Details

  • Date: June 11, 2024
  • Venue: Target Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
    • Louie Varland - Twins

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Rockies 170, Twins -195
Runline: Rockies 1.5 -120, Twins -1.5 100
Over/Under Total: 8.5 100

Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Colorado Rockies - 36% Colorado Rockies - 39.51%
Minnesota Twins - 64% Minnesota Twins - 60.49%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins and the Colorado Rockies clash in an Interleague matchup on June 11, 2024, at Target Field. The Twins, enjoying an above-average season with a 35-31 record, look to build on their recent success against the struggling Rockies, who are languishing with a 23-43 record. This game marks the second in their series, with the Twins holding a favorable position in the standings.

Louie Varland will take the mound for Minnesota. While his season has been rough—boasting an 0-4 record and a dismal 9.18 ERA—there’s a silver lining. His xFIP of 4.40 suggests that luck hasn’t been on his side, indicating potential for improved performance going forward. Varland’s high walk rate (10.3%) could be less of an issue against the Rockies, who rank 4th in the league for fewest walks.

On the other side, Colorado’s Cal Quantrill has been having a decent year with a 5-4 record and a 3.58 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.43 suggests he’s been a bit fortunate, implying tougher outings might be on the horizon. Quantrill's below-average strikeout rate (4.4 projected for this game) is concerning, especially against a Twins offense that ranks 11th in team home runs.

Offensively, Minnesota’s lineup ranks 17th overall but struggles with a low team batting average (24th) and stolen bases (23rd). The Rockies’ offense, while ranking 18th overall, is more consistent with average batting but lacks power, standing 27th in home runs. Christian Vazquez has been a bright spot recently for the Twins, hitting .400 with a 1.317 OPS over the last week. For the Rockies, Elias Diaz has been their standout, hitting .381 with a 1.054 OPS in the same period.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Twins hold a distinct advantage, ranked 8th compared to the Rockies’ 24th, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This disparity could play a crucial role as the game progresses.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Twins a 60% chance of victory, slightly lower than their implied probability of 64%, indicating potential value for bettors. With today's game total set at 8.5 runs, expect a competitive game where Minnesota’s overall edge could carry them to another win.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies outfield defense profiles as the strongest among every team playing today.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

This year, there has been a decline in Brenton Doyle's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.9 ft/sec last year to 29.16 ft/sec currently.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

In today's matchup, Jake Cave is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.6% rate (96th percentile).

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Louie Varland projects to record an average of 16.8 outs in today's game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

In terms of his home runs, Royce Lewis has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His 42.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 28.8.

  • xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Minnesota's 14.3° launch angle (a reliable standard to study the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the steepest in baseball since the start of last season: #3 overall.

  • A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.90 Units / 30% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.04 vs Minnesota Twins 4.78

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+175
7% COL
-206
93% MIN

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-110
32% UN
8.5/-110
68% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-115
2% COL
-1.5/-105
98% MIN

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
COL
Team Stats
MIN
5.51
ERA
3.89
.277
Batting Avg Against
.235
1.51
WHIP
1.20
.311
BABIP
.293
9.3%
BB%
7.3%
18.0%
K%
25.8%
67.7%
LOB%
74.0%
.248
Batting Avg
.237
.399
SLG
.416
.707
OPS
.732
.307
OBP
.316
COL
Team Records
MIN
13-17
Home
17-14
11-26
Road
18-18
18-32
vRHP
25-24
6-11
vLHP
10-8
12-12
vs>.500
10-20
12-31
vs<.500
25-12
3-7
Last10
3-7
9-11
Last20
11-9
15-15
Last30
13-17
C. Quantrill
L. Varland
N/A
Innings
56.0
N/A
GS
10
N/A
W-L
3-3
N/A
ERA
5.30
N/A
K/9
8.68
N/A
BB/9
2.57
N/A
HR/9
2.25
N/A
LOB%
76.7%
N/A
HR/FB%
20.6%
N/A
FIP
5.50
N/A
xFIP
4.24

C. Quantrill

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/27 KC
Kowar N/A
W8-3 N/A
6
6
3
3
5
0
57-94
9/21 KC
Lynch N/A
W4-1 N/A
6.2
7
1
1
6
2
61-102
9/15 MIN
Jax N/A
W12-3 N/A
6.2
2
3
0
4
3
59-100
9/9 MIN
Albers N/A
W4-1 N/A
7.2
4
1
1
5
2
72-109
9/3 BOS
Eovaldi N/A
L5-8 N/A
6
7
5
5
6
2
63-99

L. Varland

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
COL MIN
COL MIN
Consensus
+168
-200
+175
-206
+164
-198
+170
-205
+168
-200
+172
-205
+180
-215
+175
-205
+170
-205
+175
-210
+165
-200
+170
-210
Open
Current
Book
COL MIN
COL MIN
Consensus
+1.5 (-116)
-1.5 (+107)
+1.5 (-116)
-1.5 (-106)
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (-108)
+1.5 (-122)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-122)
-1.5 (+102)
+1.5 (-118)
-1.5 (+102)
+1.5 (-118)
-1.5 (-104)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-105)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-111)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-109)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)