Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles Pick For 6/27/2024

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: June 27, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jon Gray - Rangers
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Texas Rangers on June 27, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the teams find themselves on opposite trajectories this season. The Orioles, bolstered by a stellar 50-30 record, are riding high and leading the American League East. Their recent victory over the Cleveland Guardians, a 4-2 win on June 26, underscores their dominant form. Meanwhile, the Rangers, struggling with a 37-43 record, are languishing in the American League West.

Taking the mound for the Orioles is Corbin Burnes, ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Burnes has been exceptional this season with an 8-2 record and a sparkling 2.14 ERA. However, his 3.29 xERA suggests some regression might be on the horizon. Nonetheless, Burnes projects to allow just 2.2 earned runs and strike out 5.0 batters over 5.3 innings, solidifying his reputation as a great pitcher.

On the other side, Jon Gray will start for the Rangers. Gray has been fairly reliable, sporting a 3.31 ERA and a 2-3 record. However, his 4.59 xERA indicates potential trouble ahead. Projections estimate Gray will allow 2.9 earned runs and strike out 4.7 batters over 5.0 innings, which could spell trouble against Baltimore's potent offense.

The Orioles' offense ranks 2nd best in MLB, highlighted by their leading 1st rank in home runs. Gunnar Henderson, their standout hitter, boasts a .288 batting average and a 1.005 OPS this season. Over the last seven games, Henderson has been on fire, hitting .444 with a 1.545 OPS, and adding 4 home runs and 8 RBIs.

The Orioles are significant favorites with a Moneyline of -205, implying a 65% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects them with a 62% chance of winning. With a projected total of 4.98 runs for the Orioles against the Rangers' 4.08, Baltimore's dynamic offense and Burnes' strong pitching tilt the scales in their favor. Expect the Orioles to capitalize on their current momentum and continue their push in the playoff hunt.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jon Gray has averaged 93.6 adjusted pitches per start this year, checking in at the 81st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Corbin Burnes in the 86th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 76 games (+16.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+16.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 32 games (+30.25 Units / 95% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.08 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.98

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