Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Picks 6/19/2024

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays

Jun 19, 2024

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Details

  • Date: June 19, 2024
  • Venue: Target Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Taj Bradley - Rays
    • Joe Ryan - Twins

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Rays 140, Twins -165
Runline: Rays 1.5 -150, Twins -1.5 130
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -105

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Tampa Bay Rays - 40% Tampa Bay Rays - 41.86%
Minnesota Twins - 60% Minnesota Twins - 58.14%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Target Field on June 19, 2024, in the second game of their series. Currently, the Twins are enjoying a successful season with a 40-32 record, while the Rays are struggling at 34-38.

The Twins are projected to start Joe Ryan, who ranks as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Ryan has been impressive this season with a 3.24 ERA, a frequent contributor to Minnesota’s success. He has a 5-5 Win/Loss record in 14 starts, projecting to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs, and striking out 7.6 batters on average. Ryan's high-strikeout skill set (26.9 K%) will be well-matched against a Rays lineup that ranks 6th in most strikeouts this season. The added benefit of Ryan being a high-flyball pitcher facing Tampa Bay’s weak power-hitting lineup (29th in home runs) could spell trouble for the Rays.

Conversely, the Rays will send Taj Bradley to the mound. Bradley, ranked 65th among starting pitchers, has shown promise with peripheral indicators suggesting he has been unlucky (3.11 xFIP vs. 4.23 ERA). With a 2-4 record in seven starts, Taj is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 6.1 batters. However, Bradley’s high-flyball tendencies could be exploited by the Twins' power-heavy offense, which ranks 6th in home runs this season.

Minnesota's offensive prowess is evident as they rank 10th overall and 6th in home runs. Despite being average in batting average (15th) and lower in stolen bases (21st), their ability to hit for power stands out. Royce Lewis has been particularly hot, boasting an impressive .500 batting average and 1.704 OPS over the last week.

On the flip side, the Rays' offense has been lackluster, ranking 26th overall and 23rd in batting average. Their only bright spot has been in stolen bases, where they rank 7th. Jose Siri has been a standout performer recently, with a .389 batting average and a 1.339 OPS over the past week.

The Twins are favored with a moneyline of -165 and an implied win probability of 60%, while the Rays are at +140, reflecting a 40% implied win probability. With a game total of 7.5 runs, tonight's matchup pits strong pitching against contrasting offensive capabilities. Look for Joe Ryan and the powerful Twins offense to capitalize on their strengths and secure another victory.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Tallying 93.2 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Taj Bradley ranks in the 79th percentile.

  • Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jose Siri has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 16.7% seasonal rate to 38.9% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (45.4% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (49.2% vs. 43.1% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

  • A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

In comparison to his 90.1-mph average last year, Trevor Larnach's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 92.4 mph.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be best to expect worse results for the Minnesota Twins offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in baseball this year.

  • When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 53 games (+9.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games (+14.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Josh Lowe has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.45 Units / 43% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.57 vs Minnesota Twins 3.99

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+143
12% TB
-168
88% MIN

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-120
3% UN
7.5/+100
97% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-148
1% TB
-1.5/+124
99% MIN

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
TB
Team Stats
MIN
3.88
ERA
3.89
.230
Batting Avg Against
.235
1.20
WHIP
1.20
.282
BABIP
.293
7.7%
BB%
7.3%
24.0%
K%
25.8%
73.2%
LOB%
74.0%
.256
Batting Avg
.237
.443
SLG
.416
.770
OPS
.732
.327
OBP
.316
TB
Team Records
MIN
27-27
Home
28-20
23-23
Road
27-24
33-41
vRHP
38-34
17-9
vLHP
17-10
26-28
vs>.500
23-31
24-22
vs<.500
32-13
6-4
Last10
5-5
10-10
Last20
12-8
17-13
Last30
18-12
T. Bradley
J. Ryan
74.2
Innings
126.0
16
GS
22
5-7
W-L
9-8
5.67
ERA
4.43
11.93
K/9
10.86
3.13
BB/9
1.79
1.69
HR/9
1.79
64.8%
LOB%
74.3%
17.3%
HR/FB%
14.5%
4.14
FIP
4.15
3.48
xFIP
3.81
.261
AVG
.239
30.0%
K%
29.1%
7.9%
BB%
4.8%
3.54
SIERA
3.44

T. Bradley

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

J. Ryan

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/3 BAL
Zimmermann N/A
W7-2 N/A
4.2
6
2
2
3
1
57-81
4/27 DET
Pineda N/A
W5-0 N/A
7
1
0
0
9
1
58-90
4/21 KC
Greinke N/A
W1-0 N/A
6
2
0
0
5
1
57-85
4/15 BOS
Pivetta N/A
W8-4 N/A
6
5
1
1
7
0
60-82
4/8 SEA
Ray N/A
L1-2 N/A
4
2
2
2
4
4
42-70

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
TB MIN
TB MIN
Consensus
+135
-161
+143
-168
+140
-166
+145
-175
+144
-172
+142
-168
+138
-162
+138
-162
+140
-165
+143
-170
+135
-165
+140
-165
Open
Current
Book
TB MIN
TB MIN
Consensus
+1.5 (-153)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-153)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+134)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+133)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-125)
7.5 (+102)
7.5 (-101)
7.5 (-121)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
7.5 (-102)
7.5 (-120)
8.0 (-109)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-121)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)