Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals Pick For 6/19/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jun 19, 2024

Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Details

  • Date: June 19, 2024
  • Venue: Nationals Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
    • Patrick Corbin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Moneyline: D-Backs -160, Nationals 140
Runline: D-Backs -1.5 -105, Nationals 1.5 -115
Over/Under Total: 9 -120

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Arizona Diamondbacks - 60% Arizona Diamondbacks - 57.97%
Washington Nationals - 40% Washington Nationals - 42.03%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 19, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of average seasons. The Nationals hold a 35-37 record, while the Diamondbacks are slightly better at 36-37. This National League matchup at Nationals Park will be the second game in their series, with the Diamondbacks having taken the first game.

On the mound, Washington will start left-hander Patrick Corbin, who has struggled significantly this season. Corbin's 1-7 record and 5.84 ERA rank him as one of the worst starting pitchers in the league, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, where he is 325th out of approximately 350 pitchers. However, Corbin's 4.62 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and may be due for better performances moving forward.

Opposing Corbin is Brandon Pfaadt, a right-hander for Arizona, who has been more reliable with a 3-5 record and a 4.38 ERA. Pfaadt is ranked 75th among MLB starters, making him an above-average pitcher. His 3.57 xFIP also indicates some bad luck, suggesting he could see improved results as the season progresses.

Offensively, the Nationals have struggled, ranking 25th overall in MLB. Despite their lack of power, evidenced by their 28th ranking in home runs, they have been effective on the basepaths, ranking 3rd in stolen bases. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, boast the 8th best offense, with solid rankings in team batting average (8th) and home runs (16th).

In the bullpen, both teams have had their issues. The Nationals' bullpen is ranked 27th, while the Diamondbacks are slightly better at 25th. This could lead to a high-scoring game, especially with the game total currently set at 9.0 runs.

The Nationals' CJ Abrams has been on fire over the last week, hitting .435 with a 1.196 OPS, while the Diamondbacks' Eugenio Suarez has also been impressive, hitting .400 with a 1.325 OPS over his last four games.

With the Nationals as the underdogs at +135 and the Diamondbacks as the favorites at -160, Arizona's implied win probability stands at 59%. Given the pitching matchup and offensive capabilities, the Diamondbacks seem to have a slight edge in this contest.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's 2542-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 97th percentile among all starters.

  • Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.257) implies that Blaze Alexander has been very fortunate this year with his .320 actual wOBA.

  • xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Patrick Corbin is expected to ring up an average of 3.4 strikeouts in this matchup.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Jesse Winker has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past 7 days.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Joey Meneses has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 61 games (+14.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Jacob Young has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.74 vs Washington Nationals 4.58

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-174
80% ARI
+147
20% WSH

Total Pick Consensus

9.5/-115
21% UN
9.5/-105
79% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-108
98% ARI
+1.5/-112
2% WSH

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
ARI
Team Stats
WSH
4.66
ERA
4.88
.253
Batting Avg Against
.265
1.35
WHIP
1.45
.300
BABIP
.300
8.6%
BB%
9.4%
21.9%
K%
19.5%
70.1%
LOB%
72.7%
.254
Batting Avg
.259
.420
SLG
.400
.742
OPS
.719
.323
OBP
.319
ARI
Team Records
WSH
26-24
Home
20-24
23-24
Road
24-29
35-29
vRHP
30-39
14-19
vLHP
14-14
22-29
vs>.500
25-41
27-19
vs<.500
19-12
6-4
Last10
3-7
11-9
Last20
6-14
17-13
Last30
12-18
B. Pfaadt
P. Corbin
54.2
Innings
137.1
11
GS
24
0-6
W-L
7-11
6.91
ERA
4.85
8.23
K/9
5.96
2.63
BB/9
2.88
2.30
HR/9
1.57
65.7%
LOB%
71.8%
19.7%
HR/FB%
16.7%
5.76
FIP
5.24
4.55
xFIP
4.69
.296
AVG
.289
20.5%
K%
15.0%
6.6%
BB%
7.2%
4.50
SIERA
5.02

B. Pfaadt

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

P. Corbin

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 COL
Gomber N/A
L2-5 N/A
8
9
5
3
3
0
70-94
4/28 MIA
Rogers N/A
L2-3 N/A
6
4
3
2
8
2
62-90
4/22 SF
Long N/A
L1-7 N/A
1.2
7
7
7
4
3
34-60
4/17 PIT
Quintana N/A
L3-5 N/A
5.1
3
2
2
4
3
54-92
4/12 ATL
Elder N/A
L4-16 N/A
2.2
9
6
6
3
3
50-83

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
ARI WSH
ARI WSH
Consensus
-162
+138
-174
+147
-155
+130
-175
+145
-146
+124
-172
+144
-150
+128
-177
+148
-155
+130
-175
+148
-150
+125
-175
+145
Open
Current
Book
ARI WSH
ARI WSH
Consensus
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-114)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (-108)
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-126)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (+107)
+1.5 (-132)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
9.5 (-101)
9.5 (-120)
9.5 (-104)
9.5 (-117)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-115)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-122)
9.5 (-102)
9.5 (-120)
9.0 (-114)
9.0 (-107)
9.5 (-108)
9.5 (-112)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-115)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-115)