St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks 5/29/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

May 29, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 29, 2024
  • Venue: Great American Ball Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
    • Frankie Montas - Reds

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Cardinals 100, Reds -120
Runline: Cardinals 1.5 -175, Reds -1.5 155
Over/Under Total: 9.5 -110

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
St. Louis Cardinals - 48% St. Louis Cardinals - 52.39%
Cincinnati Reds - 52% Cincinnati Reds - 47.61%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

In a National League Central matchup, the Cincinnati Reds will host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 29, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, with a record of 24-31, are having a tough season, while the Cardinals hold a slightly better record of 26-27, putting them at an average level of performance.

The Reds are projected to start right-handed pitcher Frankie Montas, who has a 2-3 win/loss record this season. Montas has started nine games and holds an ERA of 4.61, which is considered average. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Montas is ranked as the #118 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating an average level of performance. On the other hand, the Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Andre Pallante, who has made nine appearances out of the bullpen this season. Pallante has a 0-1 win/loss record and an ERA of 6.30, which is considered poor. However, his 4.56 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

The Reds offense ranks as the 28th best in MLB this season, indicating a struggling lineup. They rank 14th in team batting average and team home runs, suggesting an average level of underlying talent. However, the Reds excel in stolen bases, ranking 1st in MLB, showcasing their ability to capitalize on their speed.

Contrastingly, the Cardinals offense ranks 23rd in MLB, indicating a subpar lineup. However, they rank 7th in team batting average and 5th in team home runs, showcasing their ability to hit for average and power.

The Reds bullpen is considered average, ranking 17th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, the Cardinals bullpen is ranked 3rd, indicating a strong relief pitching unit.

Based on THE BAT X projections, the Reds have a 49% chance of winning, while the Cardinals have a 51% chance. Despite the close projections, the Cardinals have a higher implied team total of 4.64 runs compared to the Reds' 4.86 runs.

In terms of pitching matchups, Montas, a right-handed high-flyball pitcher, will face a powerful Cardinals offense that ranks 5th in MLB in home runs. This could pose a challenge for Montas, as his flyballs may turn into home runs. Pallante, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a high-strikeout Reds offense, which could work in his favor. However, Pallante struggles with control, and the patient Reds offense has the opportunity to draw walks against him.

Overall, this game is expected to be a close matchup between two division rivals. The Reds will look to overcome their struggles and capitalize on their speed, while the Cardinals aim to leverage their power hitting. With the odds favoring the Cardinals slightly, it will be an exciting game to watch unfold.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Andre Pallante in the 2nd percentile among all SPs in MLB.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Elly De La Cruz is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the weak infield defense of St. Louis (#29-worst of the day).

  • This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.50 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 away games (+3.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Nolan Gorman has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.80 Units / 89% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.82 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.35

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+105
32% STL
-124
68% CIN

Total Pick Consensus

9.5/-118
50% UN
9.5/-102
50% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-192
28% STL
-1.5/+160
72% CIN

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
STL
Team Stats
CIN
4.59
ERA
4.79
.268
Batting Avg Against
.256
1.43
WHIP
1.41
.322
BABIP
.302
8.3%
BB%
9.5%
20.4%
K%
21.8%
69.8%
LOB%
72.5%
.259
Batting Avg
.250
.436
SLG
.415
.770
OPS
.743
.333
OBP
.327
STL
Team Records
CIN
26-21
Home
25-27
24-24
Road
22-22
34-34
vRHP
34-33
16-11
vLHP
13-16
19-26
vs>.500
22-34
31-19
vs<.500
25-15
6-4
Last10
6-4
12-8
Last20
11-9
19-11
Last30
15-15
A. Pallante
F. Montas
47.0
Innings
N/A
0
GS
N/A
3-1
W-L
N/A
4.79
ERA
N/A
6.89
K/9
N/A
4.02
BB/9
N/A
0.77
HR/9
N/A
70.6%
LOB%
N/A
26.7%
HR/FB%
N/A
4.38
FIP
N/A
3.79
xFIP
N/A
.279
AVG
N/A
17.4%
K%
N/A
10.1%
BB%
N/A
3.29
SIERA
N/A

A. Pallante

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

F. Montas

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 TB
Kluber N/A
L0-3 N/A
7
4
0
0
6
1
65-103
4/23 TEX
Perez N/A
L0-2 N/A
7.1
3
2
2
8
1
62-96
4/18 BAL
Watkins N/A
W5-1 N/A
6
2
1
1
5
2
54-83
4/13 TB
McClanahan N/A
W4-2 N/A
6.1
5
2
1
6
0
61-89
4/8 PHI
Nola N/A
L5-9 N/A
5
6
5
5
6
1
64-92

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
STL CIN
STL CIN
Consensus
-102
-116
+105
-124
+102
-122
+105
-125
-102
-116
+106
-124
+105
-124
+105
-122
+105
-125
+105
-125
+105
-125
+105
-125
Open
Current
Book
STL CIN
STL CIN
Consensus
-1.5 (+148)
+1.5 (-187)
+1.5 (-188)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+160)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-182)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-188)
+1.5 (160)
-1.5 (+155)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-200)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-153)
7.5 (+117)
9.5 (-103)
9.5 (-118)
9.5 (-115)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-102)
9.5 (-118)
9.5 (-102)
9.5 (-120)
9.5 (-102)
9.5 (-120)
9.5 (-110)
9.5 (-109)
9.5 (-103)
9.5 (-118)
9.5 (-115)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-115)
9.5 (-110)
9.5 (-110)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-120)