St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks 5/28/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

May 28, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 28, 2024
  • Venue: Great American Ball Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
    • Andrew Abbott - Reds


Betting Odds

Moneyline:Cardinals 110, Reds -130
Runline:Cardinals 1.5 -185, Reds -1.5 160
Over/Under Total:9 -110


St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:Projected Win %:
St. Louis Cardinals - 46%St. Louis Cardinals - 45.68%
Cincinnati Reds - 54%Cincinnati Reds - 54.32%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

In a National League Central matchup, the Cincinnati Reds will host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 28, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, with a season record of 24-30, are having a tough year, while the Cardinals, with a record of 25-27, are below average.

The Reds are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott, who has a Win/Loss record of 3-4 this season and an excellent ERA of 2.68. However, his 4.47 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. On the other hand, the Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson, who has a Win/Loss record of 3-2 and a good ERA of 3.81. However, his peripheral indicators, such as a 4.43 SIERA, 5.54 xERA, and 4.38 FIP, suggest that he may have been lucky as well and could regress in future performances.

The Reds offense ranks as the 27th best in MLB this season, while the Cardinals offense ranks 22nd. However, the Reds have an advantage in stolen bases, ranking 1st in the league, while the Cardinals rank 23rd. In terms of team batting average, the Reds rank 14th, and the Cardinals rank 7th. Both teams have shown power, with the Reds ranking 14th in home runs and the Cardinals ranking 5th.

In terms of pitching, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, ranks Andrew Abbott as the 109th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him an average pitcher. However, THE BAT X considers Kyle Gibson as one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

Considering the matchup, Abbott's high-flyball tendencies could be a disadvantage against the powerful Cardinals offense, which ranks 5th in MLB with 165 home runs this season. In contrast, Gibson's low-strikeout style could work in his favor against the high-strikeout Reds offense.

The game total for this matchup is set at 9.5 runs, indicating a high-scoring game. The Reds are favored with a moneyline of -125 and an implied win probability of 53%, while the Cardinals have a moneyline of +105 and an implied win probability of 47%. This suggests that the game is expected to be closely contested.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between the struggling Reds and the below-average Cardinals. With both teams having their strengths and weaknesses, it will be interesting to see how the game unfolds.


Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.


The 4th-weakest projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.

  • A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.


Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Cincinnati Reds batters as a unit rank near the cellar of baseball since the start of last season ( 4th-worst) when it comes to their 88.2-mph average exit velocity.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.


Game Trends

  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+5.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Ivan Herrera has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+7.10 Units / 58% ROI)


St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.78 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.99

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+110
26% STL
-130
74% CIN

Total Pick Consensus

9.5/-118
38% UN
9.5/-102
62% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-185
6% STL
-1.5/+154
94% CIN

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
STL
Team Stats
CIN
4.59
ERA
4.79
.268
Batting Avg Against
.256
1.43
WHIP
1.41
.322
BABIP
.302
8.3%
BB%
9.5%
20.4%
K%
21.8%
69.8%
LOB%
72.5%
.259
Batting Avg
.250
.436
SLG
.415
.770
OPS
.743
.333
OBP
.327
STL
Team Records
CIN
15-15
Home
17-19
16-19
Road
15-16
22-26
vRHP
23-22
9-8
vLHP
9-13
9-14
vs>.500
11-19
22-20
vs<.500
21-16
4-6
Last10
7-3
11-9
Last20
13-7
16-14
Last30
16-14
K. Gibson
A. Abbott
N/A
Innings
76.1
N/A
GS
13
N/A
W-L
7-3
N/A
ERA
2.95
N/A
K/9
9.79
N/A
BB/9
3.18
N/A
HR/9
1.18
N/A
LOB%
84.5%
N/A
HR/FB%
9.5%
N/A
FIP
3.86
N/A
xFIP
4.41

K. Gibson

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/30 NYM
Walker N/A
W4-1 N/A
4.1
2
1
0
3
5
47-84
4/25 COL
Freeland N/A
W8-2 N/A
5.2
3
2
2
4
2
59-94
4/19 COL
Freeland N/A
L5-6 N/A
6
6
3
3
3
2
56-90
4/14 MIA
Alcantara N/A
L3-4 N/A
4.2
5
4
4
6
3
56-91
4/9 OAK
Irvin N/A
W4-2 N/A
7
2
0
0
10
0
57-82

A. Abbott

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
STL CIN
STL CIN
Consensus
+106
-119
+110
-130
+105
-125
+114
-135
+102
-120
+110
-130
+102
-120
+106
-124
+100
-120
+115
-135
+105
-125
+110
-130
Open
Current
Book
STL CIN
STL CIN
Consensus
+1.5 (-183)
-1.5 (+163)
+1.5 (-183)
-1.5 (+153)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+154)
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-196)
+1.5 (-188)
-1.5 (+155)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+163)
+1.5 (-210)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+150)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-120)
9.5 (-104)
9.5 (-118)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-120)
9.5 (-102)
9.5 (-118)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-122)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-115)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-115)
9.5 (-103)
9.5 (-120)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-120)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-115)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-115)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-115)