Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick & Preview – 5/28/2024

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies

May 28, 2024

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 28, 2024
  • Venue: Oracle Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
    • Spencer Howard - Giants


Betting Odds

Moneyline:Phillies -195, Giants 165
Runline:Phillies -1.5 -110, Giants 1.5 -110
Over/Under Total:7.5 -110


Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:Projected Win %:
Philadelphia Phillies - 64%Philadelphia Phillies - 61.16%
San Francisco Giants - 36%San Francisco Giants - 38.84%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants are set to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies on May 28, 2024, at Oracle Park. As the home team, the Giants will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. This National League matchup brings together two teams with contrasting records this season.

The Giants enter the game with a record of 28-27, indicating an average performance so far. Their offense ranks 12th in MLB, showcasing their solid hitting abilities. However, they have struggled in team batting average, ranking 21st out of 30 teams. Matt Chapman has been their standout hitter this season, contributing with 37 runs and 8 home runs.

On the other hand, the Phillies have been having a great season, boasting a record of 38-17. Their offense ranks 4th in MLB, emphasizing their impressive hitting prowess. Bryce Harper has been their top performer, accumulating 32 runs, 41 RBIs, and 13 home runs. The Phillies have a strong team batting average, ranking 8th in the league.

The Giants are projected to start right-handed pitcher Spencer Howard, who has struggled this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Howard is one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. He is expected to pitch around 4.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs.

In contrast, the Phillies will send out right-handed pitcher Zack Wheeler, who has been exceptional this season. Wheeler is ranked as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He is projected to pitch around 6.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs.

Based on the projections, the Phillies are the clear favorites in this game. However, it's important to note that the Giants have a strong bullpen, ranked as the best in MLB. This could provide some support and potentially give them an edge in the later innings.

The betting odds favor the Phillies, with a moneyline of -195 and an implied win probability of 64%. However, according to THE BAT X, the Giants have a 41% projected win probability, which is higher than what the betting market suggests. This indicates potential value in betting on the Giants as underdogs.

Overall, while the Phillies have the statistical advantage in this matchup, the Giants have the potential to put up a fight, especially with their strong bullpen. It will be an interesting game to watch as both teams look to secure the victory.


Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

With 6 hitters who share the same handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, Zack Wheeler ought to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.


The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Harper in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.


Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.


Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Thairo Estrada is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.


According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher today) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

  • Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).


Game Trends

  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+8.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 39 games (+24.25 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Matt Chapman has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 47 games (+10.30 Units / 16% ROI)


Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.56 vs San Francisco Giants 3.37

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-200
81% PHI
+170
19% SF

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/+100
2% UN
7.0/-120
98% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-122
90% PHI
+1.5/+102
10% SF

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
PHI
Team Stats
SF
3.95
ERA
3.89
.238
Batting Avg Against
.247
1.24
WHIP
1.24
.290
BABIP
.302
7.8%
BB%
6.8%
23.8%
K%
23.1%
72.2%
LOB%
72.1%
.255
Batting Avg
.238
.419
SLG
.389
.742
OPS
.703
.323
OBP
.314
PHI
Team Records
SF
27-10
Home
18-15
19-10
Road
15-20
28-8
vRHP
26-23
18-12
vLHP
7-12
7-2
vs>.500
7-16
39-18
vs<.500
26-19
8-2
Last10
4-6
14-6
Last20
10-10
21-9
Last30
16-14
Z. Wheeler
E. Miller
144.0
Innings
N/A
24
GS
N/A
9-5
W-L
N/A
3.63
ERA
N/A
10.00
K/9
N/A
1.81
BB/9
N/A
0.88
HR/9
N/A
71.9%
LOB%
N/A
9.2%
HR/FB%
N/A
3.08
FIP
N/A
3.55
xFIP
N/A
.233
AVG
N/A
26.8%
K%
N/A
4.9%
BB%
N/A
3.52
SIERA
N/A

Z. Wheeler

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 TEX
Perez N/A
L1-2 N/A
7.2
6
0
0
7
1
59-78
4/28 COL
Gomber N/A
W7-1 N/A
6
1
0
0
7
4
62-90
4/23 MIL
Houser N/A
L3-5 N/A
5
7
4
4
5
0
56-84
4/17 MIA
Hernandez N/A
L3-11 N/A
3
8
7
7
3
3
41-66
4/12 NYM
Megill N/A
L0-2 N/A
4.2
2
1
1
3
1
44-65

E. Miller

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
PHI SF
PHI SF
Consensus
-198
+165
-200
+170
-198
+164
-198
+164
-198
+166
-196
+164
-200
+170
-205
+175
-220
+180
-205
+170
-10000
-10000
-210
+170
Open
Current
Book
PHI SF
PHI SF
Consensus
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (-108)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (-101)
-1.5 (-122)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (-122)
+1.5 (+102)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (-108)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-114)
+1.5 (-106)
-1.5 (-114)
+1.5 (-107)
-1.5 (-125)
+1.5 (+105)
-1.5 (-125)
+1.5 (+105)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (-105)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-123)
7.0 (+101)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-122)
7.0 (+100)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-124)
7.0 (+102)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (+105)
7.5 (-125)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (+105)
7.5 (-125)