Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick & Preview – 5/28/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates

May 28, 2024

Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 28, 2024
  • Venue: Comerica Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Jared Jones - Pirates
    • Tarik Skubal - Tigers


Betting Odds

Moneyline:Pirates 135, Tigers -155
Runline:Pirates 1.5 -165, Tigers -1.5 145
Over/Under Total:7 -110


Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:Projected Win %:
Pittsburgh Pirates - 41%Pittsburgh Pirates - 38.15%
Detroit Tigers - 59%Detroit Tigers - 61.85%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in an Interleague matchup on May 28, 2024. The game will take place at Comerica Park, with the Tigers serving as the home team.

The Tigers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. Skubal boasts a 6-1 win/loss record with an impressive 2.25 ERA. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Skubal is considered the second-best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. This makes him an elite pitcher to watch out for in this game.

On the other hand, the Pirates are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jared Jones. While Jones has had a decent season with a 3-4 win/loss record and a 3.05 ERA, his 3.58 FIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances.

In terms of offense, both teams have struggled this season. The Tigers rank 21st in MLB, while the Pirates rank 26th. The Tigers have particularly struggled in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases, ranking 27th, 27th, and 28th respectively. The Pirates have a slightly better ranking in stolen bases, coming in at 12th out of 30 teams.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Tigers rank 14th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Pirates rank 9th. Both teams have average to above-average bullpen performance, which could play a crucial role in the late innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Tigers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%. The Pirates, on the other hand, are the underdogs with a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%.

With the Tigers having the advantage in starting pitching, it will be interesting to see if their struggling offense can provide enough run support. The Pirates, despite their below-average season, have shown some promise in certain offensive categories.


Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Jared Jones is projected to allow an average of 1.5 walks in today's outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.


According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen grades out as the 9th-best out of all teams in the majors.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.


Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 8 opposite-handed batters in today's game.

  • A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.


Jake Rogers's batting average skill is projected to be in the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.


In today's matchup, Spencer Torkelson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35% rate (86th percentile).

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.


Game Trends

  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.05 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Edward Olivares has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 25% ROI)


Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.41 vs Detroit Tigers 4.15

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+124
20% PIT
-148
80% DET

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/-122
2% UN
7.0/+102
98% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-180
5% PIT
-1.5/+150
95% DET

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
PIT
Team Stats
DET
4.60
ERA
4.46
.252
Batting Avg Against
.244
1.40
WHIP
1.27
.304
BABIP
.289
9.4%
BB%
7.6%
21.9%
K%
22.2%
70.4%
LOB%
68.5%
.235
Batting Avg
.234
.388
SLG
.374
.700
OPS
.673
.313
OBP
.299
PIT
Team Records
DET
16-17
Home
15-18
16-17
Road
17-16
19-23
vRHP
25-27
13-11
vLHP
7-7
13-10
vs>.500
8-14
19-24
vs<.500
24-20
6-4
Last10
4-6
11-9
Last20
9-11
15-15
Last30
13-17
J. Jones
T. Skubal
N/A
Innings
32.1
N/A
GS
7
N/A
W-L
2-2
N/A
ERA
4.18
N/A
K/9
10.02
N/A
BB/9
1.67
N/A
HR/9
0.28
N/A
LOB%
57.4%
N/A
HR/FB%
4.2%
N/A
FIP
2.09
N/A
xFIP
2.91

J. Jones

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

T. Skubal

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/28 MIN
Ober N/A
L1-7 N/A
5
6
6
3
4
2
56-85
4/23 COL
Senzatela N/A
W13-0 N/A
6
5
0
0
6
0
60-91
4/15 KC
Keller N/A
W2-1 N/A
5.2
4
1
0
7
0
65-90
4/10 CHW
Kopech N/A
L1-10 N/A
4
7
5
4
3
1
50-79
9/30 MIN
Ryan N/A
W10-7 N/A
3.1
6
5
5
1
1
34-54

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
PIT DET
PIT DET
Consensus
+125
-146
+124
-155
+130
-155
+124
-148
+120
-142
+124
-146
+128
-150
+120
-139
+130
-155
+122
-145
+125
-155
+125
-150
Open
Current
Book
PIT DET
PIT DET
Consensus
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+157)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+146)
+1.5 (-195)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-195)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
6.5 (-129)
6.5 (+102)
7.0 (-118)
7.0 (-102)
7.0 (+102)
7.0 (-122)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (+100)
7.0 (-122)
7.0 (-113)
7.0 (-107)
6.5 (-122)
6.5 (+100)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)
7.0 (+100)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (+100)
7.0 (-120)