Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 25, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

In an Interleague matchup on May 25, 2024, the Washington Nationals will face off against the Seattle Mariners at Nationals Park. The Nationals, with a record of 22-27, are having a tough season, while the Mariners, with a record of 27-25, are performing above average. The game is the second in the series between these two teams.

The Nationals, being the home team, will have the advantage of familiar surroundings. They are projected to start Trevor Williams, a right-handed pitcher who has had a solid season so far. Williams has started nine games this year, boasting a perfect 4-0 win/loss record and an impressive 2.35 ERA. However, his 4.04 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the mound. Gilbert, also a right-handed pitcher, is ranked as the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He has started 10 games this season, with a 3-2 record and a 3.20 ERA. Gilbert's projections indicate average performance in terms of innings pitched, earned runs, strikeouts, hits allowed, and walks.

In their last game, the Nationals faced off against the Mariners and came out victorious with a score of 6-1. The Nationals had a closing Moneyline price of +110, indicating that they were the underdogs, but they defied the odds and secured the win. The Mariners, on the other hand, had a closing Moneyline price of -130, implying that they were the favorites. However, they fell short in that game.

The Nationals offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 26th best in MLB. Their team batting average of .262 is the 6th best in the league, but their lack of power is evident with a ranking of 29th in team home runs. The Mariners offense hasn't fared much better, ranking 23rd overall. They have a team batting average of .240, which is the 24th best in MLB. However, they have shown more power, ranking 13th in team home runs.

Based on THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Mariners are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 60%, while the Nationals have a projected win probability of 40%. However, the current betting odds favor the Mariners even more, with a moneyline of -170 and an implied win probability of 61%. The Nationals, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +145 and an implied win probability of 39%.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert has tallied 19.4 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 98th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Dominic Canzone has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .216 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .284 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (52.8% compared to 42.3% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Joey Gallo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 41 games (+9.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.85 Units / 44% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.45 Units / 39% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.7 vs Washington Nationals 4.29

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