Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 25, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to host the Atlanta Braves at PNC Park on May 25, 2024. The Pirates, with a season record of 24-28, are having a below-average year, while the Braves boast a strong 29-19 record.

Mitch Keller, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Pirates, while the Braves will likely start Reynaldo Lopez, also a right-handed pitcher. Keller, ranked as the #135 best starting pitcher in MLB, has a record of 5-3 this season with an ERA of 3.84. However, his xERA suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could perform worse going forward. Lopez, on the other hand, has a stellar ERA of 1.54 but his xFIP indicates that he may regress in the future.

This game is the second in the series between the Pirates and the Braves. In their previous matchup, the Pirates emerged victorious with a score of 11-5. Although the Pirates were considered underdogs in that game, they managed to secure the win. However, the Braves, with their strong offense ranking #1 in team batting average and home runs, are expected to bounce back.

The Pirates have struggled offensively this season, ranking #27 in MLB. Their best hitter, Bryan Reynolds, has recorded 27 RBIs and 7 home runs. The Braves, on the other hand, have a potent offense, ranking #6 in MLB. Marcell Ozuna leads the team with 47 RBIs, 15 home runs, and an impressive batting average of .318.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Pirates are considered underdogs with a projected win probability of 43%. The Braves, with a projected win probability of 57%, are the favorites to win the game. The current betting odds reflect this, with the Pirates listed as underdogs with a moneyline of +135 and the Braves as favorites with a moneyline of -155.

It will be interesting to see how the Pirates' below-average offense matches up against the strong pitching of Reynaldo Lopez. Can Mitch Keller continue his solid performances, or will the Braves' potent lineup overpower him? As the game unfolds, fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching to see who comes out on top.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Marcell Ozuna has been lucky this year, notching a .429 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .344 — a .085 gap.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Today’s version of the Braves projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .329 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .340 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (55.8 compared to 48.8% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Ji Hwan Bae's 2.2% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) is in the 4th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 32 games (+18.25 Units / 51% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+11.95 Units / 26% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.03 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.31

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