Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres Prediction For 7/10/2024

Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners

Jul 10, 2024

San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Details

  • Date: July 10, 2024
  • Venue: Petco Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Bryce Miller - Mariners
    • Michael King - Padres

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Mariners 120, Padres -140
Runline: Mariners 1.5 -185, Padres -1.5 160
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -110

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Seattle Mariners - 44% Seattle Mariners - 42.33%
San Diego Padres - 56% San Diego Padres - 57.67%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners are set to clash on July 10, 2024, at Petco Park in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Padres holding a 49-45 record and the Mariners at 49-43. This game is the second in the series, with Seattle looking to build on the momentum from winning the opener.

The Padres, boasting the 9th-best offense in MLB, have been particularly lethal at the plate, ranking 1st in team batting average and 8th in home runs. Their offense is complemented by a solid bullpen, ranked 9th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Mariners' offense has struggled, ranking 28th overall and dead last in team batting average. They do, however, have some pop in their lineup, sitting 13th in home runs.

On the mound, the Padres will start Michael King, who is having a strong season. King is ranked as the 31st-best starting pitcher in MLB and sports a 7-5 record with a 3.51 ERA. His ability to rack up strikeouts (27.0 K%) could be a significant advantage against a Mariners lineup that leads the league in strikeouts. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts King to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 6.8 batters.

On the other side, Bryce Miller will take the hill for Seattle. Miller has been average this season, with a 6-7 record and a 3.84 ERA over 18 starts. The projections suggest he’ll pitch 5.3 innings, giving up 2.6 earned runs and striking out 3.9 batters. Miller faces a tough task against a potent Padres lineup.

One key player to watch for San Diego is Jurickson Profar, who has been on a tear over the last week. Profar has recorded a .389 batting average and a 1.421 OPS in his last five games, including three home runs. For Seattle, Julio Rodriguez has been their standout hitter over the same period, boasting a .333 batting average and a 1.051 OPS.

The Padres enter the game as favorites with a moneyline of -140, translating to an implied win probability of 56%. With their superior offense and a more reliable bullpen, San Diego holds the edge in this contest.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's four-seamer utilization has fallen by 14.4% from last year to this one (58.5% to 44.1%) .

  • Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Cal Raleigh has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph to 96.5-mph over the last 7 days.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher today) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

  • Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King's fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this season (92.1 mph) below where it was last year (93.5 mph).

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jurickson Profar's true offensive talent to be a .316, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .075 gap between that figure and his actual .391 wOBA.

  • Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.90 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+5.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.13 vs San Diego Padres 4.57

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+123
23% SEA
-143
77% SD

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-102
2% UN
7.5/-118
98% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-170
4% SEA
-1.5/+142
96% SD

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
SEA
Team Stats
SD
3.72
ERA
3.83
.233
Batting Avg Against
.237
1.18
WHIP
1.28
.287
BABIP
.289
7.0%
BB%
9.0%
24.6%
K%
23.5%
72.3%
LOB%
75.4%
.237
Batting Avg
.240
.403
SLG
.413
.719
OPS
.739
.315
OBP
.327
SEA
Team Records
SD
30-18
Home
26-27
22-27
Road
24-21
38-34
vRHP
35-32
14-11
vLHP
15-16
25-26
vs>.500
26-28
27-19
vs<.500
24-20
5-5
Last10
4-6
8-12
Last20
12-8
15-15
Last30
16-14
B. Miller
M. King
91.1
Innings
N/A
17
GS
N/A
7-4
W-L
N/A
4.04
ERA
N/A
8.57
K/9
N/A
1.87
BB/9
N/A
1.28
HR/9
N/A
70.5%
LOB%
N/A
10.5%
HR/FB%
N/A
3.94
FIP
N/A
4.31
xFIP
N/A
.223
AVG
N/A
23.6%
K%
N/A
5.2%
BB%
N/A
4.09
SIERA
N/A

B. Miller

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

M. King

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
6/28 LAA
Bundy N/A
L3-5 N/A
4.1
6
3
2
4
2
50-77
6/23 KC
Duffy N/A
W6-5 N/A
4.2
3
2
2
5
3
44-72
6/17 TOR
Zeuch N/A
W8-4 N/A
4.1
5
3
3
1
2
41-60
6/10 MIN
Happ N/A
L5-7 N/A
3.2
4
2
2
3
3
40-69
6/4 BOS
Eovaldi N/A
L2-5 N/A
5.1
6
4
4
5
0
49-66

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
SEA SD
SEA SD
Consensus
+114
-130
+123
-143
+114
-135
+124
-148
+108
-126
+124
-146
+112
-132
+116
-136
+115
-135
+122
-145
+115
-140
+120
-145
Open
Current
Book
SEA SD
SEA SD
Consensus
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+166)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+147)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+154)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+142)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+168)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+163)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-106)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-102)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-112)
7.5 (-108)
7.5 (-108)
7.5 (-113)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)