San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Pick & Preview – 7/6/2024

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants

Jul 6, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Details

  • Date: July 6, 2024
  • Venue: Progressive Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Kyle Harrison - Giants
    • Logan Allen - Guardians

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Giants 110, Guardians -130
Runline: Giants 1.5 -185, Guardians -1.5 160
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
San Francisco Giants - 46% San Francisco Giants - 45.5%
Cleveland Guardians - 54% Cleveland Guardians - 54.5%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians and San Francisco Giants are set to clash on July 6, 2024, at Progressive Field in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Cleveland, boasting a strong 54-32 record, has enjoyed a great season and currently sits in a favorable position. Meanwhile, the Giants have had a more average season with a 44-45 record, making this a crucial game for them to regain some momentum.

In the first game of the series, Cleveland secured a victory, adding pressure on San Francisco to bounce back. The Guardians will turn to Logan Allen, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled this season despite his 8-4 win/loss record. Allen’s 5.75 ERA is concerning, although his 4.64 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and could improve. He is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, and striking out 5.2 batters.

On the mound for the Giants will be Kyle Harrison, another lefty. Harrison has been more consistent with a 3.96 ERA, but his 4.53 xERA indicates he might regress. He is expected to pitch only 3.8 innings, allowing 1.8 earned runs, and striking out 3.3 batters. Both pitchers face average projections for hits and walks allowed, making this a potentially high-scoring affair.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 12th in MLB, with a notable 8th in stolen bases and 10th in home runs. Their lineup has been anchored by Josh Naylor, who has been red-hot over the last week with a .375 batting average and 1.067 OPS. On the other side, the Giants’ offense ranks 13th and has struggled with stolen bases, ranking last in the league. However, Michael Conforto has been a bright spot, hitting .400 with a 1.425 OPS in his last five games.

Both bullpens are among the best, with the Giants ranked 1st and the Guardians 5th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This game could come down to which bullpen can hold the line in the later innings.

With the Guardians’ implied win probability at 54% and their solid season performance, they might have the edge. However, the Giants’ bullpen could be a game-changer. Expect a competitive showdown at Progressive Field.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Kyle Harrison was on point in his previous game started and conceded 1 ER.

  • A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Heliot Ramos, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

  • This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Logan Allen has tallied 14.6 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 16th percentile.

  • A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Andres Gimenez is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games (+11.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.13 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.32

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+113
25% SF
-132
75% CLE

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-102
13% UN
8.5/-118
87% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-180
15% SF
-1.5/+150
85% CLE

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
SF
Team Stats
CLE
3.89
ERA
3.76
.247
Batting Avg Against
.240
1.24
WHIP
1.27
.302
BABIP
.286
6.8%
BB%
8.3%
23.1%
K%
21.3%
72.1%
LOB%
74.3%
.238
Batting Avg
.250
.389
SLG
.380
.703
OPS
.693
.314
OBP
.313
SF
Team Records
CLE
28-22
Home
31-14
20-31
Road
28-26
37-34
vRHP
39-33
11-19
vLHP
20-7
29-38
vs>.500
26-19
19-15
vs<.500
33-21
4-6
Last10
3-7
9-11
Last20
8-12
14-16
Last30
15-15
K. Harrison
L. Allen
N/A
Innings
97.1
N/A
GS
18
N/A
W-L
6-5
N/A
ERA
3.33
N/A
K/9
8.78
N/A
BB/9
3.51
N/A
HR/9
1.02
N/A
LOB%
80.8%
N/A
HR/FB%
10.8%
N/A
FIP
3.99
N/A
xFIP
4.23

K. Harrison

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

L. Allen

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/14 MIN
Barnes N/A
L3-6 N/A
3.2
7
4
4
3
1
39-63
9/6 MIN
Ober N/A
L2-5 N/A
5.1
8
5
5
4
1
55-86
9/1 KC
Kowar N/A
W5-3 N/A
6.2
5
3
2
3
2
47-76
8/27 BOS
Rodriguez N/A
L3-4 N/A
6
1
1
1
5
1
60-88
7/5 TB
Hill N/A
L8-9 N/A
3.1
7
5
5
0
2
40-65

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
SF CLE
SF CLE
Consensus
+110
-129
+113
-132
+110
-130
+114
-135
+104
-122
+110
-130
+112
-130
+115
-136
+110
-130
+115
-135
+110
-135
+110
-130
Open
Current
Book
SF CLE
SF CLE
Consensus
+1.5 (-182)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-182)
-1.5 (+152)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+154)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+150)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-194)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-117)
8.5 (-104)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-113)
8.5 (-107)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)