Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Preview – 7/6/2024

Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox

Jul 6, 2024

Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Details

  • Date: July 6, 2024
  • Venue: LoanDepot Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
    • Yonny Chirinos - Marlins

Betting Odds

Moneyline: White Sox -155, Marlins 135
Runline: White Sox -1.5 115, Marlins 1.5 -135
Over/Under Total: 7 -105

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Chicago White Sox - 59% Chicago White Sox - 54.64%
Miami Marlins - 41% Miami Marlins - 45.36%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On July 6, 2024, the Miami Marlins take on the Chicago White Sox in the second game of their series at LoanDepot Park. Both teams are enduring rough seasons, with the Marlins sitting at 30-58 and the White Sox at 26-64. Given these records, it’s no surprise that the Marlins and White Sox offenses rank as the 30th and 29th worst in MLB, respectively.

The Marlins will send right-hander Yonny Chirinos to the mound. Although his 3.77 ERA appears respectable, his 4.43 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat fortunate this season. Chirinos has shown an ability to limit walks, but his high flyball rate could be a concern if the White Sox manage to elevate some pitches. However, given Chicago's lack of power, ranking 26th in team home runs, Chirinos might just have an edge.

The White Sox counter with lefty Garrett Crochet, who boasts an impressive 3.02 ERA and ranks as the 4th best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Crochet has been slightly unlucky, with a 2.33 xFIP suggesting he could perform even better. He’s consistently good at striking out batters, averaging 6.5 strikeouts per game, and projects to allow just 2.1 earned runs.

The Marlins’ offensive struggles are significant, ranking last in MLB in both overall offense and home runs. They also rank 23rd in team batting average, which doesn’t bode well against an elite pitcher like Crochet. Jesus Sanchez has been a bright spot recently, hitting .333 with a 1.095 OPS over the last week, but he’ll need help from his teammates to overcome Miami's offensive woes.

Meanwhile, Lenyn Sosa has been a standout for the White Sox, boasting a .462 average and 1.289 OPS over the last week. Despite their bullpen ranking 29th, Chicago’s offensive spark and Crochet's pitching give them a fighting chance. The White Sox are favored with a -165 moneyline, implying a 60% win probability, while the Marlins sit at +145 with an implied 40% chance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Garrett Crochet projects to strikeout 7 hitters in this game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Paul DeJong has big-time power (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Yonny Chirinos doesn't generate many whiffs (9th percentile K%) — great news for DeJong.

  • If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Tommy Pham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

With 6 batters who share his hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Yonny Chirinos ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Bryan De La Cruz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 93.1-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins have been the unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future

  • When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 69 games (+16.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 42 away games (+6.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Garrett Crochet has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.60 Units / 73% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.63 vs Miami Marlins 3.92

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-159
73% CHW
+135
27% MIA

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/-115
5% UN
7.0/-105
95% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+110
77% CHW
+1.5/-130
23% MIA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CHW
Team Stats
MIA
4.60
ERA
4.18
.242
Batting Avg Against
.242
1.38
WHIP
1.28
.295
BABIP
.302
10.2%
BB%
8.3%
24.3%
K%
25.2%
72.5%
LOB%
72.5%
.238
Batting Avg
.262
.386
SLG
.402
.681
OPS
.719
.295
OBP
.317
CHW
Team Records
MIA
17-33
Home
18-31
10-37
Road
14-32
20-56
vRHP
27-35
7-14
vLHP
5-28
16-47
vs>.500
20-35
11-23
vs<.500
12-28
3-7
Last10
2-8
7-13
Last20
6-14
10-20
Last30
10-20
G. Crochet
Y. Chirinos
10.0
Innings
N/A
0
GS
N/A
0-1
W-L
N/A
3.60
ERA
N/A
8.10
K/9
N/A
9.90
BB/9
N/A
0.90
HR/9
N/A
82.5%
LOB%
N/A
7.1%
HR/FB%
N/A
6.37
FIP
N/A
7.36
xFIP
N/A
.250
AVG
N/A
17.3%
K%
N/A
21.2%
BB%
N/A
6.69
SIERA
N/A

G. Crochet

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Y. Chirinos

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
8/16 TOR
Shoemaker 122
W7-5 10.5
2.2
5
2
2
3
0
32-50
8/2 BAL
Milone 186
L1-5 9.5
4.2
5
1
1
3
2
42-72
7/28 ATL
Wright 122
W5-2 8.5
4
4
1
0
4
2
41-68
9/24 NYA
Montgomery 109
W2-1 9
3
1
1
1
0
0
18-30
8/4 MIA
Smith 168
W7-2 7.5
5
2
1
1
4
1
45-63

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CHW MIA
CHW MIA
Consensus
-173
+145
-159
+135
-175
+145
-155
+130
-154
+130
-152
+128
-175
+145
-175
+145
-170
+143
-155
+130
-175
+145
-160
+135
Open
Current
Book
CHW MIA
CHW MIA
Consensus
-1.5 (+108)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-132)
-1.5 (+102)
+1.5 (-122)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-144)
-1.5 (+108)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+107)
+1.5 (-134)
-1.5 (+107)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-135)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
6.5 (-130)
6.5 (+108)
7.0 (-106)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-108)
7.0 (-112)
6.5 (-122)
6.5 (+100)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-104)
7.0 (-118)
7.0 (-104)
7.0 (-117)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)