San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers Best Bet – 6/9/2024

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants

Jun 9, 2024

Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers Details

  • Date: June 9, 2024
  • Venue: Globe Life Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Keaton Winn - Giants
    • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Giants 135, Rangers -160
Runline: Giants 1.5 -155, Rangers -1.5 135
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
San Francisco Giants - 41% San Francisco Giants - 45.87%
Texas Rangers - 59% Texas Rangers - 54.13%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on June 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack this season. The Rangers, with a 30-34 record, are struggling to find consistency, while the Giants, sitting at 32-33, have been hovering around the .500 mark. This interleague matchup at Globe Life Field marks the third game of the series, and both teams will be looking to gain some momentum.

The pitching matchup features Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers and Keaton Winn for the Giants. Eovaldi, a right-hander, has been solid this season with a 2.70 ERA and a 2-2 record over nine starts. Despite his excellent ERA, his 3.41 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate and could see some regression. Eovaldi projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs while striking out 6.1 batters. However, his projections also indicate he may struggle with control, allowing 4.2 hits and 1.6 walks.

On the other side, Winn has had a rough start to the season with a 6.17 ERA and a 3-6 record. His 3.92 xFIP, however, indicates he has been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Winn is projected to pitch 4.1 innings, allowing 1.8 earned runs and striking out 3.2 batters. Like Eovaldi, Winn is also projected to struggle with control, allowing 3.9 hits and 1.1 walks.

Offensively, the Rangers rank 15th in MLB, with an average team batting average and home run production, but a dismal 28th in stolen bases. The Giants rank 13th overall, boasting a top-10 team batting average but lagging at 19th in home runs and dead last in stolen bases.

The Rangers' bullpen is ranked 18th, an average standing, while the Giants possess the top bullpen in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could be a significant advantage for San Francisco in the later innings.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Rangers to win 53% of the time, slightly higher than their implied win probability of 59%. This suggests a close game, and bettors might find value in backing the Giants as underdogs, given their 47% projected win probability. With the Rangers' best hitter over the last week being Marcus Semien and the Giants' standout being Heliot Ramos, both teams will look to these players to provide crucial offensive support.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Keaton Winn to have a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 69 pitches.

  • A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Wilmer Flores is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (65.3% this year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

  • A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jonah Heim's speed has declined this year. His 25.77 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.24 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

  • When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games (+15.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+12.80 Units / 32% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.92 vs Texas Rangers 4.05

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+135
35% SF
-158
65% TEX

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-112
27% UN
7.5/-108
73% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-162
5% SF
-1.5/+136
95% TEX

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
SF
Team Stats
TEX
3.89
ERA
3.98
.247
Batting Avg Against
.236
1.24
WHIP
1.21
.302
BABIP
.282
6.8%
BB%
7.7%
23.1%
K%
22.5%
72.1%
LOB%
72.9%
.238
Batting Avg
.273
.389
SLG
.464
.703
OPS
.807
.314
OBP
.342
SF
Team Records
TEX
20-17
Home
19-19
16-24
Road
17-21
28-26
vRHP
25-28
8-15
vLHP
11-12
8-20
vs>.500
10-16
28-21
vs<.500
26-24
3-7
Last10
5-5
7-13
Last20
9-11
14-16
Last30
13-17
K. Winn
N. Eovaldi
22.0
Innings
123.2
2
GS
19
0-2
W-L
11-3
4.09
ERA
2.69
5.73
K/9
8.08
2.05
BB/9
2.47
1.23
HR/9
0.58
74.6%
LOB%
77.2%
17.6%
HR/FB%
7.6%
5.00
FIP
3.24
4.49
xFIP
3.79
.220
AVG
.206
15.4%
K%
23.2%
5.5%
BB%
7.1%
4.21
SIERA
3.98

K. Winn

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

N. Eovaldi

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/30 BAL
Watkins N/A
L1-2 N/A
7
3
0
0
8
0
67-95
4/25 TOR
Berrios N/A
L2-6 N/A
7
5
2
2
5
0
56-72
4/19 TOR
Kikuchi N/A
W2-1 N/A
4.2
7
1
1
6
1
61-95
4/13 DET
Rodriguez N/A
W9-7 N/A
5
4
2
2
6
1
72-101
4/8 NYY
Cole N/A
L5-6 N/A
5
5
3
3
7
1
56-76

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
SF TEX
SF TEX
Consensus
+135
-162
+135
-158
+136
-162
+130
-155
+136
-162
+130
-154
+138
-162
+138
-162
+140
-165
+135
-160
+135
-160
+135
-160
Open
Current
Book
SF TEX
SF TEX
Consensus
+1.5 (-163)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-163)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-164)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-164)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-167)
-1.5 (+133)
+1.5 (-167)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+125)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-111)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-108)
7.5 (-112)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-112)
7.5 (-108)
8.0 (-107)
8.0 (-113)
7.5 (-114)
7.5 (-107)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)