Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/9/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: June 9, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryse Wilson - Brewers
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On June 9, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Comerica Park in the third game of their interleague series. Detroit, currently holding a 31-33 record, is having a below-average season. In contrast, Milwaukee boasts a strong 38-26 record, showcasing their impressive performance this year.

The Tigers will send their ace, Tarik Skubal, to the mound. Skubal has been nothing short of elite, topping the advanced-stat Power Rankings as the #1 starting pitcher in MLB. He sports a stellar 1.97 ERA over 12 starts with a 7-1 record. Despite his excellent ERA, his 2.63 xFIP suggests some regression might be on the horizon. Skubal is expected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs and striking out 6.9 batters on average.

Opposing him will be Bryse Wilson for the Brewers. Wilson has a solid 3.35 ERA in 9 starts and 15 relief appearances, but his 4.72 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat fortunate. The projections expect him to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs while striking out 3.8 batters.

Offensively, the Tigers have struggled, ranking 25th in MLB. They are 24th in team batting average and home runs, and 28th in stolen bases, indicating a lack of firepower. Conversely, the Brewers rank 3rd in MLB in overall offense, batting average, and stolen bases, with an average ranking in home runs.

Zach McKinstry has been Detroit's best hitter over the last week, posting a .273 batting average and a 1.000 OPS. Milwaukee's Blake Perkins has been on fire, hitting .412 with a 1.150 OPS over the same period.

The Tigers' bullpen ranks 13th, while the Brewers' bullpen sits at 12th, making both relatively average. Despite this, the Tigers are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -165, translating to an implied win probability of 60%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this, projecting Detroit as a big favorite with a 60% chance to win.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Bryse Wilson has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -6.0 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Detroit's 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Rhys Hoskins, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's higher usage rate of his fastball this year (53.4 vs. 48.1% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jake Rogers has strong power (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (32% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bryse Wilson struggles to strike batters out (6th percentile K%) — great news for Rogers.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Detroit's 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #24 club in baseball since the start of last season by this stat.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+12.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games (+7.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+7.70 Units / 26% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.02 vs Detroit Tigers 4.71

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