Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/9/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers

Jun 9, 2024

Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Details

  • Date: June 9, 2024
  • Venue: Comerica Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Bryse Wilson - Brewers
    • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Brewers 145, Tigers -170
Runline: Brewers 1.5 -150, Tigers -1.5 125
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -115

Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Milwaukee Brewers - 39% Milwaukee Brewers - 40.19%
Detroit Tigers - 61% Detroit Tigers - 59.81%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On June 9, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Comerica Park in the third game of their interleague series. Detroit, currently holding a 31-33 record, is having a below-average season. In contrast, Milwaukee boasts a strong 38-26 record, showcasing their impressive performance this year.

The Tigers will send their ace, Tarik Skubal, to the mound. Skubal has been nothing short of elite, topping the advanced-stat Power Rankings as the #1 starting pitcher in MLB. He sports a stellar 1.97 ERA over 12 starts with a 7-1 record. Despite his excellent ERA, his 2.63 xFIP suggests some regression might be on the horizon. Skubal is expected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs and striking out 6.9 batters on average.

Opposing him will be Bryse Wilson for the Brewers. Wilson has a solid 3.35 ERA in 9 starts and 15 relief appearances, but his 4.72 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat fortunate. The projections expect him to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs while striking out 3.8 batters.

Offensively, the Tigers have struggled, ranking 25th in MLB. They are 24th in team batting average and home runs, and 28th in stolen bases, indicating a lack of firepower. Conversely, the Brewers rank 3rd in MLB in overall offense, batting average, and stolen bases, with an average ranking in home runs.

Zach McKinstry has been Detroit's best hitter over the last week, posting a .273 batting average and a 1.000 OPS. Milwaukee's Blake Perkins has been on fire, hitting .412 with a 1.150 OPS over the same period.

The Tigers' bullpen ranks 13th, while the Brewers' bullpen sits at 12th, making both relatively average. Despite this, the Tigers are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -165, translating to an implied win probability of 60%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this, projecting Detroit as a big favorite with a 60% chance to win.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Bryse Wilson has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -6.0 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

  • Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Detroit's 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Rhys Hoskins, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

  • This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward

  • When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's higher usage rate of his fastball this year (53.4 vs. 48.1% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

  • Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jake Rogers has strong power (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (32% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bryse Wilson struggles to strike batters out (6th percentile K%) — great news for Rogers.

  • If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Detroit's 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #24 club in baseball since the start of last season by this stat.

  • Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+12.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games (+7.85 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+7.70 Units / 26% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.02 vs Detroit Tigers 4.71

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+145
26% MIL
-172
74% DET

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-115
31% UN
8.0/-105
69% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-148
9% MIL
-1.5/+124
91% DET

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIL
Team Stats
DET
4.04
ERA
4.46
.232
Batting Avg Against
.244
1.22
WHIP
1.27
.275
BABIP
.289
8.2%
BB%
7.6%
23.0%
K%
22.2%
73.6%
LOB%
68.5%
.233
Batting Avg
.234
.377
SLG
.374
.689
OPS
.673
.312
OBP
.299
MIL
Team Records
DET
20-11
Home
15-19
20-17
Road
17-16
32-20
vRHP
25-28
8-8
vLHP
7-7
10-13
vs>.500
10-16
30-15
vs<.500
22-19
5-5
Last10
4-6
12-8
Last20
9-11
17-13
Last30
13-17
B. Wilson
T. Skubal
57.1
Innings
32.1
0
GS
7
4-0
W-L
2-2
3.30
ERA
4.18
7.38
K/9
10.02
2.20
BB/9
1.67
1.26
HR/9
0.28
76.2%
LOB%
57.4%
10.0%
HR/FB%
4.2%
4.28
FIP
2.09
4.75
xFIP
2.91
.223
AVG
.252
19.9%
K%
27.7%
5.9%
BB%
4.6%
4.23
SIERA
3.14

B. Wilson

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/21 CHC
Jr N/A
W4-3 N/A
3
3
3
3
2
4
35-60
4/16 WSH
Rogers N/A
W6-4 N/A
4.1
4
2
2
2
3
41-77
4/10 STL
Matz N/A
W9-4 N/A
4
5
3
3
2
1
42-64
9/18 MIA
Cabrera N/A
W6-3 N/A
5
4
2
2
3
0
48-68
9/12 WSH
Corbin N/A
L2-6 N/A
4.1
7
5
5
0
2
50-77

T. Skubal

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/28 MIN
Ober N/A
L1-7 N/A
5
6
6
3
4
2
56-85
4/23 COL
Senzatela N/A
W13-0 N/A
6
5
0
0
6
0
60-91
4/15 KC
Keller N/A
W2-1 N/A
5.2
4
1
0
7
0
65-90
4/10 CHW
Kopech N/A
L1-10 N/A
4
7
5
4
3
1
50-79
9/30 MIN
Ryan N/A
W10-7 N/A
3.1
6
5
5
1
1
34-54

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIL DET
MIL DET
Consensus
+140
-166
+145
-172
+145
-175
+145
-175
+140
-166
+144
-172
+145
-175
+145
-175
+150
-178
+143
-170
+135
-160
+140
-165
Open
Current
Book
MIL DET
MIL DET
Consensus
+1.5 (-151)
-1.5 (+129)
+1.5 (-151)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-154)
-1.5 (+134)
+1.5 (-154)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+125)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (+100)
8.0 (-109)
8.0 (-112)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-102)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (+100)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-117)
7.5 (-105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.5 (-130)
7.5 (+100)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)