Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 4/23/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels will host the Pittsburgh Pirates for the second game of their series on April 23, 2025. Both teams are struggling to find their footing this season, with the Angels sitting at .500 with an 11-11 record while the Pirates languish at 9-15, marking them among the worst teams in baseball. The Angels' offense ranks 22nd in MLB, but they boast impressive power, sitting 4th in home runs. In contrast, the Pirates’ offense is 28th overall and 29th in batting average, struggling to generate consistent production.

Jack Kochanowicz, projected to start for Los Angeles, has had a rocky season, with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 6.20. While his advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky (5.07 xFIP), his strikeout rate of 11.2% indicates he struggles to miss bats. Conversely, Andrew Heaney, starting for Pittsburgh, has shined with a stellar ERA of 2.13 but carries a higher xFIP of 3.49, hinting at possible regression.

The Angels' current betting line at -150 reflects their status as favorites, backed by a high implied team total of 4.89 runs. However, given their overall offensive struggles, they are likely to lean on their home run potential to break open the game. In contrast, Pittsburgh’s offense faces a tough challenge against Kochanowicz, as their high strikeout numbers could play into his favor. Overall, this matchup presents an intriguing clash of strengths and weaknesses, with the Angels hoping to gain ground in a competitive landscape.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney's fastball velocity has dropped 2.2 mph this year (89.3 mph) below where it was last season (91.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball bats like Tommy Pham are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen projects as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #8 HR venue in the majors — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

In the last two weeks' worth of games, Logan O'Hoppe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 18.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Mike Trout projects as the 10th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.05 Units / 29% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.44, Los Angeles Angels 5.37

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels

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