Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Patrick Sandoval - Angels
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 -110, Angels 1.5 -110
• Money Line: Phillies -185, Angels 160
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 63%
• Los Angeles Angels - 37%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 62.78%
• Los Angeles Angels - 37.22%

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels Game Preview & Prediction

On May 1, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies at Angel Stadium. The Angels, with a disappointing 11-18 record this season, are hosting the game as the home team. Meanwhile, the Phillies are having a great season, boasting a 19-11 record.

The Angels will send left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval to the mound, while the Phillies will counter with right-handed pitcher Zack Wheeler. Sandoval, ranked as the 54th best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a tough season with a 1-4 win/loss record and a 6.33 ERA. However, his 4.13 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other hand, Wheeler, ranked as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB, has been impressive with a 2-3 record and a stellar 1.93 ERA. His 2.82 xFIP indicates that he may regress slightly but is still expected to perform at a high level.

In terms of the bullpen, the Angels rank as the 29th best in MLB, while the Phillies boast the 5th best bullpen according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could give the Phillies an advantage late in the game.

Looking at the betting odds, the Angels are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +150 and an implied win probability of 39%. Conversely, the Phillies are the favorites with a moneyline of -170 and an implied win probability of 61%. The implied team totals for this game are 3.51 runs for the Angels and 4.49 runs for the Phillies.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average pitcher, Zack Wheeler has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 6.6 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Johan Rojas's footspeed has increased this season. His 29.35 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.98 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Patrick Sandoval must realize this, because he has used his non-fastballs a lot this year: 62.2% of the time, grading out in the 84th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jo Adell has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .354 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .201.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

In today's matchup, Logan O'Hoppe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.9% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+11.59 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 72 games (+9.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jo Adell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.45 Units / 47% ROI)

Phillies vs Angels Prediction: Phillies 4.95 - Angels 3.53

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