Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres
• Run Line: Reds 1.5 -185, Padres -1.5 160
• Money Line: Reds 115, Padres -135
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 45%
• San Diego Padres - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 39.14%
• San Diego Padres - 60.86%

Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Game Preview & Prediction

The Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Musgrove, who has a 3-3 win/loss record this year. However, Musgrove's ERA of 6.94 is quite high. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Musgrove is considered the #78 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. Despite his high ERA, his 5.00 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better in the future. Musgrove is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs and striking out 5.9 batters.

The Reds, on the other hand, are projected to start right-handed pitcher Graham Ashcraft, who has a 3-1 win/loss record and an ERA of 4.40 this season. Ashcraft's 3.38 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky as well and is likely to improve going forward. Ashcraft is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs and striking out 3.9 batters.

Offensively, the Padres rank #11 in MLB, while the Reds rank #22. The Padres have a better team batting average, ranking #20, and rank #10 in home runs. The Reds, on the other hand, excel in stolen bases, ranking #1 in MLB.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Padres rank #7 in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Reds rank #24. This suggests that the Padres have a stronger bullpen.

Based on the current odds, the Padres are favored to win with a moneyline of -135, giving them an implied win probability of 55%. The Reds have a moneyline of +115, indicating an implied win probability of 45%.

In this matchup, Musgrove's strength as a low-strikeout pitcher may give him an advantage against the high-strikeout Reds offense. Similarly, Ashcraft's control issues may pose a challenge for the high-walk Padres offense.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Graham Ashcraft was firing on all cylinders in his previous outing and gave up 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

This year, there has been a decline in Elly De La Cruz's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.53 ft/sec last year to 29.82 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Joe Musgrove is projected to strikeout 5.8 bats in today's outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.409) implies that Jackson Merrill has had some very poor luck this year with his .304 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Luis Campusano (the Padres's expected catcher in today's game) grades out as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 116 games (+17.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has only hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 16 games (-0.05 Units / -0% ROI)

Reds vs Padres Prediction: Reds 3.9 - Padres 4.61

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.