Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers Best Bet – 9/1/2024

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics
  • Walter Pennington - Rangers

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on September 1, 2024, both teams find themselves mired in below-average seasons. The Rangers sit at 64-72, while the Athletics are struggling even more with a record of 59-77. The stakes are low, but this matchup still provides an opportunity for both teams to build some momentum.

In their last game on August 31, the Rangers edged out the Athletics 3-2, marking a close-fought victory. Walter Pennington is projected to take the mound for the Rangers, having excelled with a 3.00 ERA this season, despite his peripheral stats suggesting he may have been a bit lucky. Pennington's high groundball rate (56 GB%) could be beneficial against the Athletics' powerful lineup, which ranks 4th in MLB with 132 home runs this season.

Mitch Spence, starting for the Athletics, has had a mixed season with a 4.54 ERA. However, his recent performance shows promise; in his last outing, he pitched 5 innings, allowing just 1 earned run. The projections suggest he could be due for some positive regression, as his xERA indicates he might be better than his numbers suggest.

While the Rangers’ offense ranks 25th overall, they possess a standout in Corey Seager, who has been a key contributor. Seager's recent form has been impressive, further solidifying his status as the team's best hitter. Meanwhile, the Athletics are buoyed by Brent Rooker, who has also shown strong offensive capabilities.

The leading MLB projection system gives the Rangers a slight edge in this matchup, reflecting their recent win and a favorable pitching matchup. With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, bettors might expect a competitive game as both teams look to capitalize on their respective strengths.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mitch Spence is expected to average a total of 16.4 outs in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Seth Brown has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen projects as the 6th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The Oakland Athletics have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Walter Pennington in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Wyatt Langford has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 10.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly deflated relative to his 22.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

In today's game, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+17.15 Units / 59% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 49 games (+12.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 24 games at home (+11.40 Units / 47% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.02 vs Texas Rangers 4.7

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