Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres Pick & Prediction – 6/10/2024

Oakland Athletics

Oakland Athletics

Jun 10, 2024

San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Oakland Athletics vs San Diego Padres Details

  • Date: June 10, 2024
  • Venue: Petco Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Hogan Harris - Athletics
    • Dylan Cease - Padres

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Athletics 180, Padres -210
Runline: Athletics 1.5 -125, Padres -1.5 105
Over/Under Total: 7 -120

Oakland Athletics vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Oakland Athletics - 35% Oakland Athletics - 34.1%
San Diego Padres - 65% San Diego Padres - 65.9%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on June 10, 2024, at Petco Park, the two teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Padres, sitting at an even 34-34, are having an average season, while the Athletics are struggling with a 26-40 record, reflecting a terrible season so far. This interleague matchup marks the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Padres, who boast the best team batting average in MLB, have a potent offense that ranks 1st in batting average, 14th in home runs, and 10th in stolen bases. Their offensive prowess will be supported by Dylan Cease, who is projected to start on the mound. Cease, a right-handed pitcher, is ranked as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, underscoring his status as a great pitcher.

On the other hand, the Athletics will counter with left-handed pitcher Hogan Harris. Oakland's offense, despite ranking 5th in home runs, is otherwise anemic, sitting at 29th in batting average and 24th in stolen bases. This disparity in offensive production could be a significant factor in the game, especially against a pitcher of Cease's caliber.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has been on fire for the Padres over the last week, recording a .464 batting average, 13 hits, 6 runs, and an impressive 1.195 OPS over 7 games. His hot streak could be pivotal in breaking the game open for San Diego. Meanwhile, Zack Gelof has been the standout for the Athletics, hitting 2 home runs and stealing 1 base in his last 6 games.

Betting markets reflect the Padres as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -205, implying a 65% win probability, while the Athletics are underdogs at +180, implying a 35% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with these odds, projecting the Padres with a 66% win probability and the Athletics at 34%.

Given the Padres' strong offensive metrics and the advantage of having Dylan Cease on the mound, they are well-positioned to capitalize on Oakland's struggles. The projections estimate the Padres to score 4.60 runs on average, compared to the Athletics' 3.39 runs. This game provides a clear edge for San Diego, making them a solid pick for bettors looking to back a favorite.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the best among all the teams today.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The San Diego Padres offense projects for the 3rd-most runs of all teams on the slate, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+4.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+8.45 Units / 25% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.51 vs San Diego Padres 4.72

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+197
7% OAK
-237
93% SD

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-110
3% UN
7.5/-110
97% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-105
8% OAK
-1.5/-115
92% SD

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
OAK
Team Stats
SD
5.80
ERA
3.83
.266
Batting Avg Against
.237
1.55
WHIP
1.28
.311
BABIP
.289
10.9%
BB%
9.0%
20.3%
K%
23.5%
66.8%
LOB%
75.4%
.222
Batting Avg
.240
.362
SLG
.413
.662
OPS
.739
.300
OBP
.327
OAK
Team Records
SD
15-20
Home
18-21
11-28
Road
19-18
19-38
vRHP
26-23
7-10
vLHP
11-16
9-27
vs>.500
14-14
17-21
vs<.500
23-25
1-9
Last10
5-5
4-16
Last20
9-11
7-23
Last30
15-15
J. Estes
D. Cease
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

J. Estes

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

D. Cease

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/2 LAA
Sandoval N/A
W3-0 N/A
7
1
0
0
11
0
64-93
4/27 KC
Greinke N/A
W7-3 N/A
6
3
2
2
9
3
65-99
4/15 TB
Rasmussen N/A
W3-2 N/A
5.2
3
1
1
8
2
63-91
4/9 DET
Mize N/A
W5-2 N/A
5
2
1
1
8
3
46-79
10/10 HOU
Garcia N/A
W12-6 N/A
1.2
2
3
3
2
3
20-44

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
OAK SD
OAK SD
Consensus
+182
-205
+197
-237
+180
-218
+195
-238
+184
-220
+198
-240
+180
-215
+200
-240
+175
-210
+196
-240
+170
-210
+200
-250
Open
Current
Book
OAK SD
OAK SD
Consensus
+1.5 (-109)
-1.5 (+102)
+1.5 (-109)
-1.5 (-112)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (-108)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-108)
-1.5 (-111)
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (+108)
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (-109)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.5 (-109)
7.5 (-112)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
6.5 (-122)
6.5 (+100)
7.5 (-108)
7.5 (-112)
7.0 (-113)
7.0 (-108)
7.5 (-106)
7.5 (-115)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)