Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres Pick For 6/11/2024

Oakland Athletics vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: June 11, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • JP Sears - Athletics
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres and Oakland Athletics prepare for their June 11, 2024, matchup at Petco Park, both teams are coming off contrasting seasons. The Padres, with a 34-35 record, are navigating an average season, while the Athletics, at 26-41, have struggled significantly. This Interleague clash, the second game of the series, features a pitching duel between Randy Vasquez and JP Sears.

Randy Vasquez, the Padres' right-hander, has had a tough season, holding a 1-3 record and a 5.40 ERA through seven starts. Despite these numbers, his 4.41 xFIP suggests some bad luck, indicating potential for improvement. Vasquez is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 4.9 batters on average, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Notably, Vasquez faces an Athletics offense that ranks 2nd in strikeouts, which could work to his advantage given his low 14.3% strikeout rate.

On the other side, JP Sears has been a bright spot in the Athletics' rotation, with a 4-5 record and a respectable 3.93 ERA over 13 starts. However, his 4.74 xFIP hints at some fortunate outcomes so far. Sears is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allow 3.1 earned runs, and strike out 3.5 batters. The Padres' offense, ranked 7th overall and 1st in team batting average, poses a significant challenge, especially considering their low strikeout rate (4th least in MLB).

The Padres' bats have been hot, led by Fernando Tatis Jr., who has been on fire over the last week with a .480 batting average and a 1.336 OPS. Tatis Jr. has recorded 12 hits, 6 runs, 2 home runs, and 1 stolen base in his last six games. In contrast, the Athletics' top performer, Tyler Soderstrom, has posted a .273 average in his last five games.

Both teams feature strong bullpens, with the Athletics ranked 2nd and the Padres 9th in the Power Rankings. Given the Padres' offensive prowess and the Athletics' struggles, San Diego enters this game as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -155, translating to a 59% implied win probability. In contrast, Oakland sits as the underdog with a +135 moneyline and a 41% implied win probability.

With the Padres' potent lineup and the Athletics' inconsistent performance, San Diego looks poised to take advantage of this matchup, especially if Vasquez can exploit Oakland's high strikeout tendencies.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

JP Sears is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue in the majors today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brent Rooker's true offensive skill to be a .330, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .049 difference between that figure and his actual .379 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Schuemann, Zack Gelof, Daz Cameron, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez has had some very poor luck with his strikeouts this year, posting a 5.67 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.24 — a 1.57 K/9 discrepancy.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen projects as the 9th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• Brent Rooker has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.20 Units / 31% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.2 vs San Diego Padres 4.86

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