Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/11/2024

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Details

• Date: June 11, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jesus Luzardo - Marlins
  • Tylor Megill - Mets

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Miami Marlins on June 11, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling in the National League East. The Mets, with a record of 28-36, have had a disappointing season, but the Marlins' record of 22-43 places them even further down the standings. This first game of the series will be played at Citi Field, with Tylor Megill and Jesus Luzardo taking the mound for their respective teams.

The Mets' offense has been relatively middle-of-the-pack, ranking 13th in MLB overall and 14th in team batting average. They have shown some power, ranking 11th in home runs, which could be pivotal in facing Luzardo, who has an ERA of 5.30 despite an xFIP of 3.83 indicating he's been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Luzardo, a left-handed pitcher, will look to neutralize the Mets' bats, but his projected 5.6 innings, 2.7 earned runs, 5.2 hits, and 1.7 walks per outing are fairly ordinary.

On the other side, the Marlins' offense has been abysmal, ranking 29th overall and 28th in home runs. They will face Tylor Megill, a high-flyball right-handed pitcher with an excellent 3.00 ERA, although his 4.09 xFIP suggests he's benefited from some good fortune. Megill's ability to keep the Marlins, a team that struggles with power, from turning flyballs into home runs might be a key factor. Additionally, Megill's high walk rate (10.1%) could be less of an issue against a Marlins lineup that ranks dead last in drawing walks.

The Mets' bullpen is ranked 22nd, which is subpar but still better than the Marlins' bullpen, which holds the 29th spot. Both teams will likely need solid performances from their starters to avoid overexposing their relievers.

In terms of recent performance, Luis Torrens has been the Mets' standout hitter over the last week, boasting a .400 batting average and a stellar 1.455 OPS. Meanwhile, Josh Bell has been the Marlins' best hitter, carrying a .350 batting average and a 1.000 OPS.

The betting odds favor the Mets, with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. Given the Marlins' offensive struggles and the Mets’ slight edge in both pitching and hitting, the projections align with the notion that New York has a better chance of taking the series opener.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Jesus Luzardo has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Josh Bell's speed has declined this year. His 25.92 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.96 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Miami Marlins bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tylor Megill has added a cutter to his pitch mix this year and has utilized it 13.8% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (61.9) implies that Starling Marte has had bad variance on his side this year with his 15.5 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Harrison Bader hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+6.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games (+11.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+7.70 Units / 24% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.95 vs New York Mets 4.3

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