Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds Pick For 6/11/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: June 11, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Triston McKenzie - Guardians
  • Brent Suter - Reds

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are set to host the Cleveland Guardians on June 11, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, with a season record of 32-34, are having a below-average season and currently sit outside of playoff contention. In contrast, the Guardians are shining with a 42-22 record, positioning themselves as a strong contender this season.

On the mound, the Reds will start Brent Suter, a left-handed pitcher who has been primarily utilized out of the bullpen this season. Suter has a respectable 3.97 ERA, but his 4.58 FIP suggests he's been somewhat fortunate and could see regression. He projects to pitch only 3.1 innings, which is notably low, and will likely hand the game to a bullpen ranked 19th in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Facing him will be Triston McKenzie for the Guardians. Despite McKenzie's 4.16 ERA, his 4.94 xFIP indicates he, too, might be due for worse performances ahead. McKenzie is projected to go 4.8 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs with a below-average strikeout rate of 4.5 per game. The Guardians can lean on their bullpen, which ranks 4th best in MLB, to secure the game late.

Offensively, the Reds rank 15th overall but have struggled with consistency, evidenced by their 27th ranking in team batting average. However, they do bring some power with a 17th ranking in home runs and a strong running game, ranking 2nd in stolen bases. TJ Friedl has been the Reds' standout over the past week, boasting a 1.048 OPS with 2 home runs and 2 stolen bases.

The Guardians' offense, ranking 10th, has been more reliable, with good power (8th in home runs) and decent batting average (16th). Steven Kwan has been on a tear, hitting .462 with a 1.380 OPS over the last week.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Reds a 52% win probability, slightly higher than the betting market's implied 47%. With both teams projected to score around five runs, this matchup looks to be a closely contested battle, potentially offering value for those backing the Reds.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Triston McKenzie is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Josh Naylor's footspeed has decreased this year. His 25.8 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.84 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Brent Suter's high usage percentage of his fastball (63% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Elly De La Cruz is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#3-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 21 games at home (+12.55 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 51 games (+11.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 25% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.95 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.84

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