Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners Prediction For 6/11/2024

Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox

Jun 11, 2024

Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Details

  • Date: June 11, 2024
  • Venue: T-Mobile Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Drew Thorpe - White Sox
    • Bryan Woo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Moneyline: White Sox 195, Mariners -230
Runline: White Sox 1.5 -110, Mariners -1.5 -110
Over/Under Total: 7 -110

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Chicago White Sox - 33% Chicago White Sox - 34.25%
Seattle Mariners - 67% Seattle Mariners - 65.75%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners gear up to host the Chicago White Sox on June 11, 2024, the game pits two teams heading in opposite directions this season. The Mariners are enjoying a solid season with a 37-30 record, while the White Sox are languishing at 17-49. Seattle, sitting in a favorable position, looks to capitalize on a struggling Chicago squad that has been mired in misery all year.

This matchup will see Bryan Woo taking the mound for the Mariners, with a stellar 1.07 ERA through his first six starts. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, ranks Woo as the 47th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 pitchers, a testament to his impressive form. However, his 3.70 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate so far, and some regression could be on the horizon. Woo's projections for this game are mostly positive, expecting him to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 1.4 earned runs and striking out 6.0 batters.

On the other side, Drew Thorpe will start for Chicago. Despite being an average pitcher by the projections, his 2.2 projected earned runs are respectable. Thorpe is expected to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing 4.5 hits and 1.5 walks. Both starters are right-handers, which may neutralize some offensive tendencies.

Offensively, the Mariners have had mixed results. They rank 23rd in overall offense, a dismal 28th in batting average, but are 8th in home runs, showcasing their power potential. Mitch Garver has been their standout performer over the past week, delivering a 1.056 OPS with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs in his last 6 games.

In stark contrast, the White Sox sit at the bottom of the league in offense, ranking 30th overall and in batting average. Despite their struggles, Lenyn Sosa has been a bright spot recently, posting a .421 batting average with an impressive 1.132 OPS over the last 7 games.

Both bullpens are among the worst in the league, with the Mariners ranked 26th and the White Sox 25th. This could tilt the game in favor of whichever team can get to the starting pitchers early.

Given the Mariners' strong season and the White Sox's continued woes, Seattle is a heavy favorite with a moneyline of -230, translating to a 67% implied win probability. With the game total set at a low 7.0 runs, expect a potentially tight and low-scoring affair, but one where the Mariners have a clear edge.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Andrew Vaughn has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season's 25.53 ft/sec to 26.36 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

  • Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Lenyn Sosa has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Compared to average, Bryan Woo has been granted a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing an -12.3 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

  • Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

As it relates to his batting average, Dominic Canzone has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .206 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .284.

  • xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

  • Dominic Canzone has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 2.77 vs Seattle Mariners 3.69

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+152
5% CHW
-180
95% SEA

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-125
7% UN
7.5/+105
93% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-130
1% CHW
-1.5/+110
99% SEA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CHW
Team Stats
SEA
4.60
ERA
3.72
.242
Batting Avg Against
.233
1.38
WHIP
1.18
.295
BABIP
.287
10.2%
BB%
7.0%
24.3%
K%
24.6%
72.5%
LOB%
72.3%
.238
Batting Avg
.237
.386
SLG
.403
.681
OPS
.719
.295
OBP
.315
CHW
Team Records
SEA
12-23
Home
27-12
7-31
Road
16-19
14-43
vRHP
29-23
5-11
vLHP
14-8
11-36
vs>.500
13-17
8-18
vs<.500
30-14
4-6
Last10
7-3
4-16
Last20
15-5
6-24
Last30
19-11
D. Thorpe
J. Diaz
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

D. Thorpe

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

J. Diaz

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
10/2 SEA
Flexen N/A
L4-6 N/A
4.1
6
3
3
3
2
59-89
9/17 OAK
Irvin N/A
L4-5 N/A
1.2
2
2
2
2
4
26-50

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CHW SEA
CHW SEA
Consensus
+194
-225
+152
-180
+185
-225
+150
-180
+194
-235
+154
-184
+195
-235
+155
-182
+185
-225
+150
-178
+195
-250
+145
-175
Open
Current
Book
CHW SEA
CHW SEA
Consensus
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (-102)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+111)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+102)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-143)
-1.5 (-107)
+1.5 (-143)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+120)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+102)
7.5 (-123)
7.5 (+105)
7.5 (-125)
7.5 (+105)
7.5 (-125)
7.5 (-102)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (-102)
7.5 (-120)
7.0 (-104)
7.0 (-117)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+105)
7.5 (-125)
7.5 (+105)
7.5 (-125)
7.0 (-125)
7.0 (+105)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)