Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles Best Bet – 6/11/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: June 11, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Braves
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On June 11, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles host the Atlanta Braves at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Orioles, holding an impressive 43-22 record, are enjoying a great season and sit near the top of the AL standings. Meanwhile, the Braves, at 35-28, are having a solid season.

Baltimore will send Albert Suarez to the mound. Despite an excellent 1.83 ERA, Suarez, ranked #230 among 350 pitchers in advanced Power Rankings, has been quite fortunate this season as evidenced by his 3.99 xFIP. With just six starts and 13 bullpen appearances, Suarez projects for an average outing of 5.2 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs and recording 4.6 strikeouts. Braves hitters may find opportunities against Suarez, who is projected to allow 5.3 hits and 1.5 walks.

On the flip side, the Braves will counter with Max Fried, who boasts a stellar 2.93 ERA and is ranked 3rd among 350 pitchers in advanced Power Rankings, making him elite. Fried is expected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing just 2.2 earned runs, and striking out 5.8 batters. However, the Orioles' potent offense will look to challenge his projection of 5.5 hits and 1.6 walks. Fried's high groundball rate (61%) could neutralize Baltimore’s top-ranked home run-hitting offense.

Baltimore's offense ranks 3rd in MLB, leading in home runs and placing 8th in batting average, demonstrating their overall prowess. Ryan O'Hearn has been the standout bat for the Orioles over the last week, hitting .409 with two home runs and a 1.182 OPS. The Braves' offense, ranking 11th, has been more balanced but less powerful, with Marcell Ozuna hitting .304 over the last week and contributing one home run and a .855 OPS.

The Orioles’ bullpen is ranked 15th, while Atlanta’s is 6th, giving the Braves a slight edge in late-game scenarios. With a game total sitting at 8.0 runs, bettors can expect a competitive matchup. The Braves, favored with a moneyline of -140, have a 56% implied win chance, but the Orioles as underdogs (+120) could surprise, particularly if they exploit Fried's tendencies. Keep an eye on how Baltimore's powerful lineup fares against Fried's groundball strategy for today's game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Max Fried has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed batters today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Among all starters, Albert Suarez's fastball velocity of 94.5 mph ranks in the 75th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Austin Hays's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 27.45 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.89 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 29 away games (+10.99 Units / 30% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+11.80 Units / 44% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.61 vs Baltimore Orioles 3.78

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