New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 14, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Chris Paddack - Twins

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

In an American League matchup scheduled for May 14, 2024, the Minnesota Twins will face off against the New York Yankees at Target Field. The Twins, with a season record of 24-16, are having a great season, while the Yankees, with a record of 27-15, are also performing exceptionally well.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Paddack. Paddack has started 7 games this year and holds a 4-1 win/loss record with an ERA of 4.34. Despite his average ERA, his 3.52 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward. The Yankees, on the other hand, will start left-handed pitcher Carlos Rodon. Rodon has started 8 games and holds a 3-2 win/loss record with a 3.56 ERA. However, his 4.45 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky this season and may see a decline in performance.

The Twins offense ranks 22nd in MLB in team batting average this season, while the Yankees rank 29th. However, the Twins rank 7th in team home runs, displaying their power at the plate. The Yankees, despite their low batting average, rank 8th in home runs, showcasing their ability to generate runs with the long ball.

Over the last 7 games, the Twins' best hitter has been Ryan Jeffers, while Aaron Judge has been the standout for the Yankees. Jeffers has recorded 5 hits, 4 runs, 7 RBIs, and 3 home runs with a batting average of .294 and an impressive 1.232 OPS. Judge, on the other hand, has accumulated 7 hits, 5 runs, 7 RBIs, and 3 home runs with a batting average of .333 and a stellar 1.339 OPS.

According to the current odds, the Twins have an average implied team total of 3.77 runs, while the Yankees have an average implied team total of 4.23 runs. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially close matchup.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (42% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #21 HR venue in the league in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Anthony Rizzo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling an 8.92 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.79 — a 1.13 K/9 deviation.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Willi Castro's quickness has dropped off this season. His 28.59 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.83 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Minnesota Twins offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 52 games (+11.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 away games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 42 games (+11.30 Units / 26% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.73 vs Minnesota Twins 3.93

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