Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 14, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Slade Cecconi - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

In an exciting National League matchup on May 14, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Cincinnati Reds at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks will be the home team, looking to improve their below-average season record of 19-22. Meanwhile, the Reds will be the away team, hoping to turn around their struggling season with a current record of 17-23.

On the mound, the Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi. Cecconi has started four games this season, posting a win-loss record of 1-2. His ERA stands at 4.15, which is above average. However, it's worth noting that his 4.84 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances.

Opposing Cecconi will be the Reds' right-handed pitcher, Hunter Greene. Greene has started eight games this season, with a win-loss record of 1-2 and an impressive ERA of 3.38. However, his 4.19 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could see a decline in future outings.

Looking at the teams' offensive capabilities, the Diamondbacks rank 11th in team batting average and 19th in team home runs this season. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking third in the league. On the other hand, the Reds rank 14th in both team batting average and team home runs but lead the league in stolen bases.

Taking into account the projections and advanced statistics, Cecconi is ranked as the 165th best starting pitcher in MLB, out of approximately 350 pitchers. Meanwhile, Greene is ranked as the 77th best starting pitcher. Although Cecconi is projected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings and allow an average of 2.6 earned runs, his projected strikeouts (4.4) and hits allowed (5.0) are below average. Greene, on the other hand, is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allow 3.0 earned runs, strikeout 5.5 batters, and allow 5.2 hits, with all those projections being close to average.

Considering these factors, it appears that the Diamondbacks have a slight advantage on the mound, as Cecconi's projected performance aligns more favorably than Greene's. However, it's important to consider that Greene is a high-strikeout pitcher facing a low-strikeout Diamondbacks offense, which could give Arizona an edge.

With an over/under of 8.5 runs, the game is expected to have an average total. The Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline of -115, indicating a 51% implied win probability, while the Reds have a moneyline of -105 with a 49% implied win probability. Based on the odds, the Diamondbacks have a higher implied team total of 4.30 runs compared to the Reds' 4.20 runs.

As both teams prepare to take the field, it looks like it could be a close game with the Diamondbacks having a slight edge in terms of pitching projections. However, the Reds hold the advantage in stolen bases, which could impact the game. Fans and bettors alike can expect an exciting matchup between these two National League teams.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Hunter Greene has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.9% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Typically, bats like Spencer Steer who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Slade Cecconi.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Slade Cecconi didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out in his previous start and put up 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Since the start of last season, Jake McCarthy's 2.4% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 4th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Arizona's 10.7° launch angle (a reliable stat to measure the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the lowest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season: #28 overall.

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 132 games (+12.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 118 games (+14.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.20 Units / 37% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.89 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.18

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