St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

May 14, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 14, 2024
  • Venue: Angel Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
    • Reid Detmers - Angels

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Cardinals -140, Angels 120
Runline: Cardinals -1.5 125, Angels 1.5 -145
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -110

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
St. Louis Cardinals - 56% St. Louis Cardinals - 58.18%
Los Angeles Angels - 44% Los Angeles Angels - 41.82%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

On May 14, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Angel Stadium in an Interleague matchup. The Angels, with a disappointing 15-27 record this season, are hoping to turn their fortunes around against the struggling Cardinals, who hold a 17-24 record. The game is the second in the series between these two teams, with the Cardinals emerging victorious in the previous game with a score of 10-5.

The Angels will be sending left-handed pitcher Reid Detmers to the mound, while the Cardinals will counter with right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray. Detmers, ranked as the #95 best starting pitcher in MLB, has started 8 games this year and holds a 3-4 win/loss record with a 4.96 ERA. Despite his below-average ERA, Detmers' 3.72 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward.

On the other hand, Gray, ranked as the #13 best starting pitcher in MLB, has started 6 games this season and boasts a 4-2 win/loss record with an impressive 2.29 ERA. However, his 3.32 xERA indicates that he has been fortunate and may experience some regression in his performance.

The Angels offense ranks as the #18 best in MLB this season, with an average batting average and the third-most home runs. However, they struggle in the stolen bases department, ranking 27th out of 30 teams. The Cardinals offense, on the other hand, ranks as the #28 best in MLB, with a good team batting average and the fifth-most home runs. However, they also struggle with stolen bases, ranking 23rd.

Based on the current odds, the Cardinals are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. THE BAT X projects the Cardinals to win with a projected win probability of 58%. The Angels, with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%, are considered the underdogs according to both the odds and projections.

With the Angels' offense facing the elite pitching of Sonny Gray, who excels in strikeouts, and the Cardinals' powerful offense against Reid Detmers' high-flyball tendencies, this game has the potential for an exciting matchup. The Angels will look to rely on their home run-hitting ability, while the Cardinals aim to take advantage of Detmers' flyball tendencies.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2616 rpm) has been significantly higher than than his seasonal rate (2563 rpm).

  • Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward

  • When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tallying 92.7 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Reid Detmers falls in the 80th percentile.

  • Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Luis Guillorme's speed has dropped off this season. His 25.44 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.95 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 78 games (+8.80 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 42 away games (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Mickey Moniak has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+6.50 Units / 70% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.61 vs Los Angeles Angels 3.65

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