New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Picks 5/30/2024

New York Yankees

New York Yankees

May 30, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 30, 2024
  • Venue: Angel Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
    • Patrick Sandoval - Angels

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Yankees -180, Angels 155
Runline: Yankees -1.5 -110, Angels 1.5 -110
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
New York Yankees - 62% New York Yankees - 55.98%
Los Angeles Angels - 38% Los Angeles Angels - 44.02%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels are set to face off against the New York Yankees in an American League matchup on May 30, 2024. The game will take place at Angel Stadium, with the Angels serving as the home team.

The projected starting pitchers for the game are Patrick Sandoval for the Angels and Carlos Rodon for the Yankees. Both pitchers are left-handed and have been performing above average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Sandoval is ranked as the #65 best starting pitcher in MLB, while Rodon is ranked at #89.

Sandoval has started 11 games this season, with a win/loss record of 2-7 and an ERA of 5.60. However, his 3.89 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Rodon, on the other hand, has started 11 games as well, with a win/loss record of 6-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.95. His 4.53 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may regress in future performances.

In terms of offense, the Angels rank 12th in MLB in overall performance, while the Yankees hold the top spot. However, the Angels excel in home runs, ranking 3rd in the league, while the Yankees struggle with a low batting average, ranking 29th.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Carlos Rodon has used his secondary pitches 5.1% more often this season (44.7%) than he did last season (39.6%).

  • A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Anthony Rizzo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Over his previous 3 starts, Patrick Sandoval has seen a sizeable decline in his fastball spin rate: from 1938 rpm over the entire season to 1879 rpm lately.

  • Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Nolan Schanuel's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 26.8 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.13 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Kevin Pillar pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.2% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 27 games (+18.70 Units / 69% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.37 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.49

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-179
87% NYY
+150
13% LAA

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-105
23% UN
8.5/-115
77% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-115
95% NYY
+1.5/-105
5% LAA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
NYY
Team Stats
LAA
4.06
ERA
4.58
.231
Batting Avg Against
.247
1.25
WHIP
1.39
.276
BABIP
.301
8.8%
BB%
9.9%
23.5%
K%
23.6%
73.2%
LOB%
71.2%
.232
Batting Avg
.251
.402
SLG
.437
.709
OPS
.761
.307
OBP
.324
NYY
Team Records
LAA
25-19
Home
19-29
31-20
Road
19-26
46-26
vRHP
30-46
10-13
vLHP
8-9
31-23
vs>.500
18-37
25-16
vs<.500
20-18
3-7
Last10
2-8
5-15
Last20
9-11
11-19
Last30
14-16
C. Rodón
P. Sandoval
N/A
Innings
112.1
N/A
GS
21
N/A
W-L
6-9
N/A
ERA
4.09
N/A
K/9
7.85
N/A
BB/9
4.17
N/A
HR/9
0.72
N/A
LOB%
68.7%
N/A
HR/FB%
9.5%
N/A
FIP
4.06
N/A
xFIP
4.40

C. Rodón

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

P. Sandoval

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/2 CHW
Cease N/A
L0-3 N/A
6
6
3
3
2
3
57-96
4/19 HOU
Valdez N/A
W7-2 N/A
4
4
1
0
5
2
50-85
4/12 MIA
Luzardo N/A
W4-3 N/A
4
3
1
0
6
3
40-71
8/13 HOU
Greinke N/A
L1-4 N/A
4.2
5
4
4
3
2
50-83
8/6 LAD
Price N/A
W4-3 N/A
5
7
2
2
4
2
56-96

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
NYY LAA
NYY LAA
Consensus
-175
+150
-179
+150
-185
+154
-170
+142
-176
+148
-174
+146
-182
+155
-190
+160
-190
+158
-175
+148
-190
+155
-185
+150
Open
Current
Book
NYY LAA
NYY LAA
Consensus
-1.5 (-114)
+1.5 (-108)
-1.5 (-114)
+1.5 (-107)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (-113)
+1.5 (-104)
-1.5 (-113)
+1.5 (-106)
-1.5 (-114)
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (-114)
+1.5 (-107)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-106)
8.5 (-117)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-128)
8.5 (+104)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-109)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)