Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox Pick & Prediction – 5/30/2024

Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers

May 30, 2024

Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 30, 2024
  • Venue: Fenway Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
    • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Tigers 100, Red Sox -120
Runline: Tigers 1.5 -205, Red Sox -1.5 175
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -115

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Detroit Tigers - 48% Detroit Tigers - 47.09%
Boston Red Sox - 52% Boston Red Sox - 52.91%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On May 30, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will face off against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. As the home team, the Red Sox will look to improve their record of 28-28 this season, while the Tigers aim to build on their 27-28 record. This American League matchup promises to be an exciting game between two teams having an average season.

The Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Nick Pivetta, who has a record of 2-3 this year with an ERA of 4.20. Despite his average performance, Pivetta's 3.26 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Tigers will start right-handed pitcher Jack Flaherty, who has a record of 1-4 with an ERA of 3.84. Flaherty's 2.04 xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky and is expected to improve.

This game marks the first in the series between these two teams. In their last games, the Red Sox lost to the Orioles with a score of 6-1, while the Tigers fell to the Pirates with a score of 10-2. Both teams were considered underdogs in their respective games.

The Red Sox offense ranks as the 8th best in MLB this season, boasting a strong team batting average that ranks 3rd in the league. However, their home run and stolen base rankings are average. On the other hand, the Tigers offense ranks as the 19th best in MLB, with a low team batting average and home run ranking.

In terms of pitching, the Red Sox bullpen is considered the 24th best in MLB, while the Tigers bullpen ranks 18th. This suggests that both teams have room for improvement in their relief pitching.

Based on the current odds, the Red Sox are favored to win with a moneyline set at -120, giving them an implied win probability of 52%. However, THE BAT X projects a close game, giving the Red Sox a 52% win probability and the Tigers a 48% win probability.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 7.1 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Gio Urshela's quickness has declined this season. His 26.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.54 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Detroit Tigers bats as a unit grade out 24th- in MLB for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

  • Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta has utilized his slider 10.3% more often this season (27.7%) than he did last year (17.4%).

  • Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Wilyer Abreu is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Detroit (#3-worst on the slate today).

  • This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+10.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 36 games (+8.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Riley Greene has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 19 away games (+8.25 Units / 42% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.26 vs Boston Red Sox 4.26

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+104
25% DET
-122
75% BOS

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/+105
3% UN
7.5/-125
97% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-205
20% DET
-1.5/+170
80% BOS

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
DET
Team Stats
BOS
4.46
ERA
4.32
.244
Batting Avg Against
.252
1.27
WHIP
1.31
.289
BABIP
.302
7.6%
BB%
7.6%
22.2%
K%
22.9%
68.5%
LOB%
72.8%
.234
Batting Avg
.262
.374
SLG
.431
.673
OPS
.759
.299
OBP
.327
DET
Team Records
BOS
22-23
Home
22-24
23-26
Road
29-17
35-41
vRHP
39-27
10-8
vLHP
12-14
23-31
vs>.500
16-26
22-18
vs<.500
35-15
7-3
Last10
8-2
11-9
Last20
14-6
14-16
Last30
20-10
J. Flaherty
N. Pivetta
N/A
Innings
101.2
N/A
GS
11
N/A
W-L
8-6
N/A
ERA
4.34
N/A
K/9
11.24
N/A
BB/9
3.63
N/A
HR/9
1.50
N/A
LOB%
70.5%
N/A
HR/FB%
15.3%
N/A
FIP
4.27
N/A
xFIP
3.89

J. Flaherty

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/24 CHC
Davies N/A
W12-4 N/A
0.1
2
2
2
1
1
10-19
8/24 DET
Mize N/A
L3-4 N/A
2
4
4
4
1
3
25-46
8/18 MIL
Peralta N/A
L4-6 N/A
6
4
2
2
8
1
56-92
8/13 KC
Minor N/A
W6-0 N/A
6
2
0
0
5
0
52-81
5/31 LAD
Bauer N/A
L4-9 N/A
5
2
2
2
9
1
50-83

N. Pivetta

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 BAL
Lyles N/A
L5-9 N/A
4.1
6
3
3
5
0
49-67
4/26 TOR
Gausman N/A
L5-6 N/A
4.2
3
2
2
6
4
60-98
4/20 TOR
Berrios N/A
L1-6 N/A
4
7
5
5
4
4
61-95
4/15 MIN
Ryan N/A
L4-8 N/A
2
5
4
4
2
2
32-54
4/9 NYY
Severino N/A
L2-4 N/A
5.2
4
4
4
4
3
50-81

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
DET BOS
DET BOS
Consensus
-104
-112
+104
-122
-102
-118
+102
-122
-106
-110
+104
-122
-105
-113
+104
-122
+100
-120
+105
-125
-105
-115
+105
-125
Open
Current
Book
DET BOS
DET BOS
Consensus
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-189)
+1.5 (-208)
-1.5 (+173)
-1.5 (+154)
+1.5 (-185)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
-1.5 (+152)
+1.5 (-184)
-1.5 (+172)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+175)
+1.5 (-235)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+175)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+175)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-190)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+170)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
7.5 (+102)
7.5 (-125)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-108)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (+102)
7.5 (-124)
8.5 (-104)
8.5 (-117)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-122)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
7.5 (+105)
7.5 (-125)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)