Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/30/2024

Houston Astros

Houston Astros

May 30, 2024

Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 30, 2024
  • Venue: T-Mobile Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
    • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Astros 120, Mariners -140
Runline: Astros 1.5 -175, Mariners -1.5 155
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -110

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Houston Astros - 44% Houston Astros - 43.79%
Seattle Mariners - 56% Seattle Mariners - 56.21%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On May 30, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a record of 30-26 this season, are having an above-average year, while the Astros, with a record of 24-31, are struggling. This American League West matchup promises an exciting game.

The Mariners, as the home team, will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Logan Gilbert, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gilbert is ranked as the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. With a 3-2 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 3.06, Gilbert has been a reliable asset for the Mariners. However, his peripheral indicator, the 3.59 SIERA, suggests that he has been lucky this year and may face some challenges going forward.

On the other side, the Astros will send right-handed pitcher Spencer Arrighetti to the mound. Arrighetti has struggled this season, with a record of 2-5 and an ERA of 6.93. However, his 4.09 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future.

The Mariners offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB this season, while the Astros offense ranks as the 4th best. This suggests that the Astros have a significant advantage in terms of offensive firepower. However, the Mariners have been led by their standout hitter Julio Rodriguez, who has been on fire in the last seven games. Rodriguez has recorded 8 hits, 4 runs, 7 RBIs, 2 home runs, and 4 stolen bases, with a batting average of .320 and an OPS of .880.

In terms of team performance, the Mariners bullpen ranks 22nd in MLB, while the Astros bullpen ranks 14th. This indicates that the Astros may have a slight advantage in the later innings.

With a game total of 7.5 runs, the oddsmakers expect a low-scoring game. The Mariners are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145, giving them an implied win probability of 57%. The Astros, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 43%.

Overall, the Mariners have the advantage of playing at home and have a solid starting pitcher in Logan Gilbert. However, the Astros boast a strong offense and could potentially exploit the Mariners' bullpen. It will be an intriguing matchup between these two teams as they battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Spencer Arrighetti was on point in his previous game started and accumulated 7 strikeouts.

  • A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Yordan Alvarez's 17.7% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) grades out in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Houston Astros projected offense profiles as the 2nd-strongest of the day in terms of overall offensive ability.

  • A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert has tallied 19.3 outs per start this year, ranking in the 98th percentile.

  • A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Mitch Haniger's footspeed has decreased this year. His 26.65 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.82 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Seattle Mariners bats collectively grade out 3rd- in the majors for power since the start of last season when judging by their 9.7% Barrel%.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+8.45 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 56 games (+8.85 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+15.40 Units / 34% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 3.82 vs Seattle Mariners 4.12

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

Subscribe to our newsletter to get our best bets every week!

*By clicking the "Subscribe" button, you agree to receive promotional emails.

Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+114
21% HOU
-133
79% SEA

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/+102
11% UN
7.5/-122
89% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-185
12% HOU
-1.5/+154
88% SEA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
HOU
Team Stats
SEA
3.79
ERA
3.72
.237
Batting Avg Against
.233
1.26
WHIP
1.18
.289
BABIP
.287
8.7%
BB%
7.0%
24.0%
K%
24.6%
75.3%
LOB%
72.3%
.251
Batting Avg
.237
.417
SLG
.403
.740
OPS
.719
.324
OBP
.315
HOU
Team Records
SEA
28-21
Home
31-21
24-27
Road
22-28
39-32
vRHP
39-36
13-16
vLHP
14-13
18-26
vs>.500
27-30
34-22
vs<.500
26-19
6-4
Last10
4-6
12-8
Last20
8-12
20-10
Last30
12-18
S. Arrighetti
L. Gilbert
N/A
Innings
142.0
N/A
GS
24
N/A
W-L
10-5
N/A
ERA
3.80
N/A
K/9
9.06
N/A
BB/9
1.65
N/A
HR/9
1.20
N/A
LOB%
71.0%
N/A
HR/FB%
12.1%
N/A
FIP
3.59
N/A
xFIP
3.66

S. Arrighetti

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

L. Gilbert

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 MIA
Alcantara N/A
W7-3 N/A
5.2
3
1
1
5
4
65-102
4/26 TB
Wisler N/A
W8-4 N/A
5.2
2
0
0
7
3
62-104
4/20 TEX
Dunning N/A
W4-2 N/A
6.2
6
0
0
4
0
58-92
4/14 CHW
Lambert N/A
W5-1 N/A
5
4
1
0
4
0
59-85
4/9 MIN
Gray N/A
W4-3 N/A
5
3
1
1
7
1
56-85

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
HOU SEA
HOU SEA
Consensus
+115
-135
+114
-133
+120
-142
+110
-130
+114
-134
+112
-132
+123
-143
+118
-141
+118
-140
+110
-130
+120
-145
+115
-135
Open
Current
Book
HOU SEA
HOU SEA
Consensus
+1.5 (-191)
-1.5 (+148)
+1.5 (-191)
-1.5 (+157)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+154)
+1.5 (-184)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-184)
-1.5 (+152)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+148)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (+101)
7.5 (-123)
7.5 (-112)
7.5 (-108)
7.0 (-122)
7.0 (+102)
7.5 (-128)
7.5 (+104)
7.0 (-122)
7.0 (+100)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-121)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.0 (-125)
7.0 (+105)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)