New York Yankees at Texas Rangers Pick For 9/2/2024

• Date: September 2, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the New York Yankees on September 2, 2024, both teams are looking to set the tone for their three-game series. This matchup is significant, as the Yankees are currently in contention for a playoff spot, while the Rangers are having a below-average season with a record of 65-72. Last night, the Rangers managed to secure a win against the Athletics, triumphing 6-4, whereas the Yankees faced a tough loss against the Cardinals, falling 14-7.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Jack Leiter, whose season has been marred by struggles, reflected in his 12.83 ERA and a 0-1 win/loss record. Although Leiter's 6.28 xFIP suggests he may be a bit unlucky, his high walk rate of 10.5% could pose a challenge against a Yankees lineup that thrives on drawing walks, leading MLB in that category. The projections indicate that Leiter is likely to pitch around 4.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, which could spell trouble for Texas.

In contrast, Gerrit Cole is slated to start for the Yankees, bringing a solid 3.86 ERA to the game. Despite a somewhat higher FIP of 4.44 indicating he might have been lucky this season, Cole has shown he can handle pressure, evidenced by his recent outing where he pitched 5 innings with 3 earned runs and 7 strikeouts.

While the Rangers' offense ranks 26th overall, their best hitter, Corey Seager, has been performing well lately. In the past week, he has a batting average of .391 with an OPS of 1.087. Conversely, the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, led by Aaron Judge, who has an impressive .327 batting average and 51 home runs.

With the Yankees favored in this matchup, the projections suggest a win probability of 57% for New York against the Rangers' 43%. The Game Total is set at an average of 8.5 runs, making this an intriguing contest for bettors. The Rangers' odds of +155 could present value, especially considering their recent win and the unpredictability of Leiter's performance against a potent Yankees lineup.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Gerrit Cole's 95.4-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 92nd percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Despite posting a .481 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Aaron Judge has been very fortunate given the .052 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .429.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The 10.9% Barrel% of the New York Yankees makes them the #1 squad in the game this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jack Leiter has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Wyatt Langford has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 57 games at home (+15.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 75 games (+20.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 24 games (+9.85 Units / 41% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.36 vs Texas Rangers 4.31

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