New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/1/2024

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 1, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the New York Mets on July 1, 2024, at Nationals Park, both teams are looking to bounce back from tough losses. The Nationals, currently sitting at 39-44, are having a below-average season and are 4th in the NL East. Meanwhile, the Mets, with a 40-41 record, are having an average season and hold the 3rd position in the division. This National League East matchup is crucial for both teams as they aim to gain ground in the standings.

In their last outing, the Nationals were shut out 5-0 by the Tampa Bay Rays, entering the game as significant underdogs with a +160 Moneyline. On the other hand, the Mets fell 10-5 to the Houston Astros, despite being slight favorites at -125. Both teams will look to turn the tide in this series opener.

The Nationals will send left-hander MacKenzie Gore to the mound. Gore, ranked as the 60th best starting pitcher in the league by advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a solid ERA of 3.60 over 16 starts this season. However, he struggled in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs over 5 innings. Gore is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 6.3 batters on average today. His ability to limit walks and hits will be crucial against a potent Mets lineup.

David Peterson will start for the Mets. The left-hander has a 3-0 record and a respectable 3.67 ERA over 5 starts. However, his 4.85 xFIP suggests he might have been lucky so far and could regress. Peterson's groundball-heavy approach (52% GB rate) could neutralize Washington's lack of power, as the Nationals rank 29th in MLB in home runs. Peterson is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, and striking out 4.3 batters.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's 2140-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 22nd percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Mark Vientos has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 15.1% seasonal rate to 29.2% in the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The New York Mets have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Compared to the average starter, MacKenzie Gore has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 6.7 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jesse Winker has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen grades out as the worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 48 of their last 82 games (+11.23 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 55 games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.48 vs Washington Nationals 3.85

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.