New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick & Preview – 6/9/2024

New York Mets

New York Mets

Jun 9, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

  • Date: June 9, 2024
  • Venue: London Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Jose Quintana - Mets
    • Taijuan Walker - Phillies

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Mets 130, Phillies -150
Runline: Mets 1.5 -140, Phillies -1.5 120
Over/Under Total: 11 100

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
New York Mets - 42% New York Mets - 47.47%
Philadelphia Phillies - 58% Philadelphia Phillies - 52.53%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are set to clash on June 9, 2024, in an intriguing National League East matchup at London Stadium. The Phillies, boasting a stellar 45-19 record, are having a fantastic season and currently sit atop the division. Conversely, the Mets are struggling with a 27-36 record and find themselves well out of contention.

The Phillies will send Taijuan Walker to the mound. Despite his 3-1 record, Walker's numbers are a mixed bag; his 5.73 ERA is alarming, but his 5.00 xFIP suggests some bad luck may be at play. On the other side, the Mets will counter with Jose Quintana, who also appears unlucky with a 5.17 ERA but a more favorable 4.67 xFIP. Quintana’s 1-5 record and 12 starts indicate he's had his share of struggles this season.

Philadelphia’s offense is a force to be reckoned with, ranking 6th in MLB in overall performance, batting average, and home runs. The Mets, while not as dominant, are no slouches either, ranking 14th in overall offense and batting average, and 9th in home runs.

The Phillies' bullpen is another strength, ranking 4th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Mets' bullpen lags behind at 20th. This disparity could be a deciding factor in the latter innings.

Nick Castellanos has been a bright spot for the Phillies recently, with a .263 average, two home runs, and a .965 OPS over the last week. Luis Torrens has been hot for the Mets, hitting .308 with two home runs and a 1.203 OPS in the same timeframe.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Phillies a 54% win probability, slightly better than their implied win probability of 56%. With both teams projected to score over six runs, expect a high-scoring affair. The Phillies' superior offense and bullpen depth could give them the edge in what promises to be an exciting game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Jose Quintana's high usage percentage of his fastball (55.4% this year) is likely hurting his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

  • Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Today, Francisco Lindor is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.1% rate (94th percentile).

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Taijuan Walker's 90.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.3-mph drop off from last year's 91.9-mph figure.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Kyle Schwarber has a ton of pop (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jose Quintana is a pitch-to-contact type (21st percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

  • If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 6th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward

  • When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 45 games (+18.90 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 away games (+8.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 23 away games (+8.15 Units / 35% ROI)

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 6.25 vs Philadelphia Phillies 6.29

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+123
10% NYM
-144
90% PHI

Total Pick Consensus

11.5/-105
42% UN
11.5/-115
58% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-148
4% NYM
-1.5/+124
96% PHI

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
NYM
Team Stats
PHI
4.55
ERA
3.95
.248
Batting Avg Against
.238
1.38
WHIP
1.24
.297
BABIP
.290
9.9%
BB%
7.8%
22.5%
K%
23.8%
72.3%
LOB%
72.2%
.236
Batting Avg
.255
.399
SLG
.419
.715
OPS
.742
.317
OBP
.323
NYM
Team Records
PHI
13-23
Home
27-10
15-14
Road
19-10
20-26
vRHP
28-8
8-11
vLHP
18-12
9-18
vs>.500
7-2
19-19
vs<.500
39-18
6-4
Last10
8-2
8-12
Last20
14-6
11-19
Last30
21-9
J. Quintana
T. Walker
29.2
Innings
131.2
5
GS
24
0-4
W-L
13-5
3.03
ERA
4.03
6.07
K/9
7.25
3.03
BB/9
3.76
0.00
HR/9
1.16
71.1%
LOB%
75.6%
0.0%
HR/FB%
12.5%
2.93
FIP
4.68
5.03
xFIP
4.69
.248
AVG
.231
16.3%
K%
19.3%
8.1%
BB%
10.0%
5.13
SIERA
4.92

J. Quintana

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 DET
Faedo N/A
W7-2 N/A
5
4
2
2
3
1
45-77
4/28 MIL
Peralta N/A
L2-3 N/A
5
4
1
1
9
0
48-78
4/22 CHC
Smyly N/A
W4-2 N/A
4.2
3
2
2
3
3
51-87
4/17 WSH
Corbin N/A
W5-3 N/A
4
5
3
3
2
3
46-85
4/12 CHC
Smyly N/A
L1-2 N/A
5.1
5
1
1
3
2
43-71

T. Walker

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/30 PHI
Gibson N/A
L1-4 N/A
5
2
0
0
1
2
44-73
4/11 PHI
Suarez N/A
L4-5 N/A
2
0
0
0
4
0
20-30
9/29 MIA
Hernandez N/A
L2-3 N/A
7.1
2
2
2
5
3
57-90
9/22 BOS
Sale N/A
L5-12 N/A
2
6
6
6
1
2
32-55
9/17 PHI
Wheeler N/A
L3-4 N/A
5
3
2
2
3
0
60-88

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
NYM PHI
NYM PHI
Consensus
+130
-154
+123
-144
+120
-142
+120
-142
+130
-154
+124
-146
+123
-143
+120
-141
+118
-140
+130
-155
+120
-145
+115
-140
Open
Current
Book
NYM PHI
NYM PHI
Consensus
+1.5 (-154)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-154)
-1.5 (+127)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-167)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-167)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+125)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
11.5 (-112)
11.5 (-110)
11.0 (+114)
11.0 (-135)
11.5 (-115)
11.5 (-105)
9.5 (-110)
9.5 (-110)
11.5 (+100)
11.5 (-122)
10.5 (-113)
10.5 (-107)
11.5 (+100)
11.5 (-120)
10.5 (-110)
10.5 (-110)
11.5 (-115)
11.5 (-105)
10.5 (-115)
10.5 (-105)
11.5 (-115)
11.5 (-105)