New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bet – 7/6/2024

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: July 6, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Mets gear up for their second game in the series on July 6, 2024, both teams find themselves in similar positions in the National League standings. The Pirates, sitting at 42-45, are having a below-average season, while the Mets, with a 42-44 record, are faring slightly better but still average. The Pirates will look to bounce back after their loss yesterday, while the Mets aim to build on their momentum.

The Pirates will send Bailey Falter to the mound. With a 4-6 record and a 3.87 ERA, Falter has been serviceable, but his 4.64 xFIP suggests he might regress. The advanced-stat Power Rankings place him at 215th out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating he is one of the worst in MLB. Falter's high-flyball tendency (39 FB%) could spell trouble against a powerful Mets lineup that ranks 4th in home runs this season. The Pirates' bullpen, ranked 17th, will need to be ready to pick up the slack if Falter struggles.

David Peterson will start for the Mets. Although his 3-0 record and 3.51 ERA look solid, his 4.63 xFIP hints at potential regression. Peterson's low strikeout rate (15.1 K%) might actually work in his favor against a Pirates offense that strikes out frequently, ranking 5th in MLB in strikeouts. The Mets' bullpen, ranked 18th, is similarly average and will need to hold the line if Peterson falters.

Offensively, the Pirates have struggled mightily, ranking 28th overall. Their batting average (25th), home runs (24th), and stolen bases (21st) highlight their offensive woes. Michael A. Taylor has been a bright spot recently, hitting .625 with a 1.625 OPS over the last week. However, the rest of the lineup will need to step up against Peterson.

In contrast, the Mets boast the 10th-best offense in MLB, with a particularly strong showing in home runs (4th). Mark Vientos has been hot lately, with a .292 average and two home runs in the last week. The Mets' ability to capitalize on Falter's flyball tendencies could be a game-changer.

The betting markets see this as a close game, with the Pirates at +115 and the Mets at -135. The implied team totals suggest a high-scoring affair, with the Mets projected to score 4.76 runs and the Pirates 4.24 runs. Given the Pirates' struggles and the Mets' power, the edge seems to favor New York in this matchup.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Brandon Nimmo has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.9-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 92.3-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 9.8% Barrel% of the New York Mets ranks them as the #2 offense in the majors this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (65.9 vs. 52.8% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael A. Taylor's true offensive ability to be a .278, implying that he has been unlucky this year given the .058 deviation between that figure and his actual .220 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Today, Joey Bart is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.4% rate (83rd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 79 games (+14.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 37 away games (+12.85 Units / 31% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.23 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.45

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.