Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Picks 9/5/2024

• Date: September 5, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays on September 5, 2024, in a crucial matchup at Tropicana Field. The Twins currently hold a record of 75-64, putting them in a solid position, while the Rays are at 69-70, having an average season. In their last game, the Rays beat the Twins, putting up nine runs in an impressive offensive performance from the home team.

On the mound, the Rays will start Taj Bradley, who has been a mixed bag this season with a 6-9 record and a 4.35 ERA. His advanced projections suggest he might be due for better luck, as his 3.73 xFIP indicates he could be performing above his current stats. Bradley is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs while striking out 6.5 batters. However, he also struggles with allowing hits and walks, which could be a significant factor against a strong Twins lineup.

The Twins counter with Pablo Lopez, who has been a standout this season with a 13-8 record and a 4.05 ERA, ranking him as the 15th best starter in MLB according to advanced stats. Lopez is projected to pitch 5.7 innings with 2.2 earned runs allowed, striking out 6.5 batters as well. His ability to limit runs makes him a tough challenge for the Rays’ offense, which ranks 25th in MLB and has been struggling overall.

With the game total set at a low 7.0 runs, the betting landscape sees the Rays as underdogs with a moneyline of +120, suggesting an implied team total of just 3.26 runs. The Twins, favored at -140, have a low implied total of 3.74 runs as well. Given the strengths of Lopez and the struggles of the Rays’ offense, the Twins may have the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (95.4 mph) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (94.3 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Matt Wallner is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#2-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota's 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #23 group of hitters in the majors this year by this stat.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley has averaged 92.2 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 76th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

In the past 14 days, Brandon Lowe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 75 of their last 133 games (+11.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 62 games (+7.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 38 games (+15.30 Units / 31% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.85 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.72

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