Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Betting Pick & Preview – 5/17/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers

May 17, 2024

Houston Astros

Houston Astros
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 17, 2024
  • Venue: Minute Maid Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
    • Hunter Brown - Astros

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Brewers -110, Astros -110
Runline: Brewers -1.5 150, Astros 1.5 -175
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Milwaukee Brewers - 50% Milwaukee Brewers - 45.36%
Houston Astros - 50% Houston Astros - 54.64%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros will be hosting the Milwaukee Brewers at Minute Maid Park on May 17, 2024. The Astros, currently having a rough season with a record of 19-25, will look to turn things around against the Brewers, who are having a great season with a record of 26-17.

The Astros will be sending right-handed pitcher Hunter Brown to the mound, while the Brewers will counter with right-handed pitcher Freddy Peralta. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Peralta is considered the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his elite skills on the mound. On the other hand, Brown is ranked at 81, suggesting that he is above average.

Brown has started 7 games this season, but unfortunately, he is yet to secure a win, with a record of 0-4. His ERA stands at 7.79, which is quite high. However, his 3.98 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in the future.

Peralta, on the other hand, has started 8 games and has a record of 3-1. His ERA stands at 3.63, and his peripheral indicators, such as his 3.04 SIERA and 3.11 FIP, suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better going forward.

In terms of offense, the Astros rank 6th best in MLB, showcasing their talent at the plate. They have performed well in categories like team batting average and home runs, ranking 14th and 9th, respectively. The Brewers, on the other hand, have the 2nd best offense in MLB, despite ranking low in team batting average and home runs. Their success can be attributed to other offensive factors.

Looking at the betting odds, both teams have an implied win probability of 50%, indicating that it should be a close game. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, which is average. Based on the current odds, the Astros have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Brewers have the same average implied team total.

Overall, this matchup between the struggling Astros and the dominant Brewers promises to be an intriguing game. With Peralta's pitching prowess and the Astros' strong offense, it will be interesting to see how the teams perform on the field.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Recording 93.5 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Freddy Peralta falls in the 86th percentile.

  • Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Sal Frelick has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (66% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Christian Yelich has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown has relied on his slider 16.1% less often this season (9%) than he did last season (25.1%).

  • Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

This year, there has been a decline in Yordan Alvarez's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.86 ft/sec last year to 25.41 ft/sec currently.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Houston Astros projected batting order profiles as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

  • A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 away games (+6.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 44 games (+12.80 Units / 20% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.02 vs Houston Astros 4.15

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-115
43% MIL
-104
57% HOU

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-108
20% UN
7.5/-112
80% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+145
72% MIL
+1.5/-175
28% HOU

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIL
Team Stats
HOU
4.04
ERA
3.79
.232
Batting Avg Against
.237
1.22
WHIP
1.26
.275
BABIP
.289
8.2%
BB%
8.7%
23.0%
K%
24.0%
73.6%
LOB%
75.3%
.233
Batting Avg
.251
.377
SLG
.417
.689
OPS
.740
.312
OBP
.324
MIL
Team Records
HOU
22-12
Home
19-19
21-18
Road
14-21
34-22
vRHP
25-26
9-8
vLHP
8-14
15-12
vs>.500
10-22
28-18
vs<.500
23-18
6-4
Last10
5-5
12-8
Last20
9-11
17-13
Last30
15-15
F. Peralta
H. Brown
128.0
Innings
125.1
23
GS
22
9-8
W-L
9-8
4.08
ERA
4.16
11.04
K/9
9.91
3.38
BB/9
2.80
1.34
HR/9
1.22
71.5%
LOB%
73.5%
14.5%
HR/FB%
19.5%
4.01
FIP
3.93
3.76
xFIP
3.30
.217
AVG
.257
29.4%
K%
26.5%
9.0%
BB%
7.5%
3.72
SIERA
3.58

F. Peralta

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 CIN
rrez N/A
W18-4 N/A
5
5
3
3
7
2
63-98
4/28 PIT
Quintana N/A
W3-2 N/A
6
3
0
0
7
0
59-92
4/22 PHI
Suarez N/A
L2-4 N/A
5
3
1
1
6
2
54-89
4/15 STL
Mikolas N/A
L1-10 N/A
3
7
6
6
4
2
49-77
4/10 CHC
Stroman N/A
W5-4 N/A
4
3
3
3
6
4
46-88

H. Brown

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIL HOU
MIL HOU
Consensus
-120
-104
-115
-104
-122
+102
-112
-108
-108
-108
-112
-104
-113
-105
-118
+102
-120
+100
-115
-105
-120
+100
-110
-110
Open
Current
Book
MIL HOU
MIL HOU
Consensus
0.0 (146)
0.0 (-200)
-1.5 (+146)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+146)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+146)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-177)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-177)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-190)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-106)
8.5 (-115)
7.5 (-113)
7.5 (-108)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
7.5 (-112)
7.5 (-108)
8.5 (+102)
8.5 (-124)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
8.5 (-114)
8.5 (-106)
7.5 (-114)
7.5 (-107)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)