Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/17/2024

Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers

May 17, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 17, 2024
  • Venue: Chase Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
    • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Tigers -140, D-Backs 120
Runline: Tigers -1.5 115, D-Backs 1.5 -135
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Detroit Tigers - 56% Detroit Tigers - 56.61%
Arizona Diamondbacks - 44% Arizona Diamondbacks - 43.39%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On May 17, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Detroit Tigers at Chase Field in an Interleague matchup. The Diamondbacks, with a season record of 21-23, are having a below-average season, while the Tigers hold a record of 21-22, indicating an average performance so far.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ryne Nelson, who has started six games this year. Nelson holds a win/loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 5.33, which is considered bad. However, his 4.23 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and may perform better going forward. On the other side, the Tigers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal, who has started eight games and boasts an impressive record of 5-0 with an ERA of 2.02. Skubal is considered an elite pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The Diamondbacks offense ranks as the 8th best in MLB this season, displaying their underlying talent. They also rank 3rd in stolen bases, which could pose a challenge for Skubal, a high-strikeout pitcher. Meanwhile, the Tigers offense ranks as the 26th best in MLB, indicating a struggle to generate runs.

Based on the current odds, the Tigers are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 56%. The Diamondbacks, as underdogs, have an implied win probability of 44%. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.0 runs, which is considered average.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the struggling Diamondbacks and the average-performing Tigers. With Skubal's elite pitching and the Tigers' offensive struggles, the Diamondbacks may have an advantage. However, the Diamondbacks will need to capitalize on their offensive strength and exploit Skubal's high-strikeout style to secure a victory.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's sinker usage has increased by 10.9% from last year to this one (12.2% to 23.1%) .

  • Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Spencer Torkelson is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Detroit Tigers batters as a unit place 24th- in the game for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

  • Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson's 94.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 77th percentile among all starters.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Corbin Carroll's footspeed has decreased this year. His 30.05 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.06 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Blaze Alexander has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 27 games (+3.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.55 Units / 66% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.99 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.07

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-136
65% DET
+116
35% ARI

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-118
11% UN
8.0/-102
89% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+124
82% DET
+1.5/-148
18% ARI

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
DET
Team Stats
ARI
4.46
ERA
4.66
.244
Batting Avg Against
.253
1.27
WHIP
1.35
.289
BABIP
.300
7.6%
BB%
8.6%
22.2%
K%
21.9%
68.5%
LOB%
70.1%
.234
Batting Avg
.254
.374
SLG
.420
.673
OPS
.742
.299
OBP
.323
DET
Team Records
ARI
16-19
Home
19-18
18-20
Road
17-19
26-31
vRHP
25-23
8-8
vLHP
11-14
12-19
vs>.500
9-15
22-20
vs<.500
27-22
3-7
Last10
6-4
8-12
Last20
11-9
13-17
Last30
16-14
T. Skubal
R. Nelson
32.1
Innings
125.0
7
GS
24
2-2
W-L
6-7
4.18
ERA
5.47
10.02
K/9
5.90
1.67
BB/9
2.66
0.28
HR/9
1.58
57.4%
LOB%
69.0%
4.2%
HR/FB%
12.2%
2.09
FIP
5.16
2.91
xFIP
5.23
.252
AVG
.288
27.7%
K%
15.2%
4.6%
BB%
6.8%
3.14
SIERA
5.20

T. Skubal

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/28 MIN
Ober N/A
L1-7 N/A
5
6
6
3
4
2
56-85
4/23 COL
Senzatela N/A
W13-0 N/A
6
5
0
0
6
0
60-91
4/15 KC
Keller N/A
W2-1 N/A
5.2
4
1
0
7
0
65-90
4/10 CHW
Kopech N/A
L1-10 N/A
4
7
5
4
3
1
50-79
9/30 MIN
Ryan N/A
W10-7 N/A
3.1
6
5
5
1
1
34-54

R. Nelson

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
DET ARI
DET ARI
Consensus
-152
+120
-136
+116
-155
+130
-135
+114
-136
+116
-136
+116
-141
+120
-137
+118
-155
+130
-135
+115
-150
+125
-135
+110
Open
Current
Book
DET ARI
DET ARI
Consensus
0.0 (123)
0.0 (-200)
-1.5 (+123)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-138)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-144)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+123)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-160)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
0.0 (-200)
0.0 (-200)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-119)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (+100)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
7.5 (-114)
7.5 (-106)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-125)