Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 17, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

In an American League West matchup, the Texas Rangers will host the Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Field on May 17, 2024. The Rangers, with a season record of 23-22, are having an average season, while the Angels, with a record of 16-28, are struggling with a terrible season.

The Rangers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney, who has a win/loss record of 0-4 this year and an ERA of 4.39, which is considered average. Despite his average performance, peripheral indicators such as his SIERA and xERA suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Heaney is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.4 batters per game.

On the other side, the Angels will counter with left-handed pitcher Tyler Anderson, who has a record of 3-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.92. However, his xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky this season and could potentially perform worse in the future. Anderson is projected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs and striking out 4.3 batters per game.

The Rangers have been performing well offensively this season, ranking as the 10th best team in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking second in the league, and team home runs, ranking fifth. However, their stolen bases rank poorly at 25th. On the other hand, the Angels have an average offense, ranking 14th in MLB. They perform well in team batting average, ranking 12th, and team home runs, ranking third, but struggle with stolen bases, ranking 27th.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Rangers have an average ranking, placing 15th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, the Angels' bullpen ranks poorly, sitting at 29th.

The Rangers enter the game as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -175, giving them an implied win probability of 61%. The Angels, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +150, with an implied win probability of 39%. Based on the odds, the Rangers have a high implied team total of 5.07 runs, while the Angels have an average implied team total of 3.93 runs.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, with the Rangers boasting a powerful offense and the Angels relying on the performance of their starting pitcher. It will be interesting to see how the Rangers' power hitters fare against the high-flyball tendencies of Tyler Anderson, while the Angels' potent offense looks to take advantage of Andrew Heaney's flyball tendencies.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between the average-performing Rangers and the struggling Angels. With the Rangers' offensive firepower and the Angels' reliance on their starting pitcher, it remains to be seen which team will come out on top.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson's 88.6-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 1st percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jo Adell has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 34.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal higher than his 17.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Andrew Heaney is expected to post an average of 15.2 outs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Robbie Grossman is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Corey Seager hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 6th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+6.10 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.25 Units / 41% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+9.15 Units / 24% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.2 vs Texas Rangers 4.99

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