Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins

May 6, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 6, 2024
  • Venue: Dodger Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Roddery Munoz - Marlins
    • Walker Buehler - Dodgers


Betting Odds

Moneyline:Marlins 235, Dodgers -275
Runline:Marlins 1.5 115, Dodgers -1.5 -135
Over/Under Total:8.5 -110


Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:Projected Win %:
Miami Marlins - 29%Miami Marlins - 26.74%
Los Angeles Dodgers - 71%Los Angeles Dodgers - 73.26%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

In an exciting National League matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Miami Marlins at Dodger Stadium on May 6, 2024. The Dodgers, having a great season with a record of 23-13, are the home team, while the struggling Marlins, with a record of 10-26, are the away team.

The Dodgers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Walker Buehler, who is considered one of the top pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Buehler is known for his strong performances and is expected to pitch well in this game.

On the other hand, the Marlins will likely start right-handed pitcher Roddery Munoz. Munoz has had a solid season so far, with a 1-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.45. However, peripheral indicators such as his xERA and FIP suggest that Munoz may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

The Dodgers boast the best offense in MLB this season, ranking first in overall performance. They have been hitting the ball well, with a high team batting average and the second-most home runs in the league. In contrast, the Marlins have struggled offensively, ranking near the bottom in several categories.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Dodgers have a solid ranking, sitting at ninth place according to our Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Marlins' bullpen is ranked 28th, indicating potential weaknesses in their relief pitching.

Based on the current odds, the Dodgers are heavily favored to win this game, with an implied win probability of 70%. Their strong offense and the matchup against the Marlins' struggling pitcher give them an advantage. The Marlins, considered underdogs, have an implied win probability of 30%.

Overall, the Dodgers have the upper hand in this game. With their dominant offense, strong starting pitching, and a favorable matchup against the Marlins, they are expected to come out on top. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Marlins will look to defy the odds and pull off an upset.


Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Tim Anderson is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.


According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.


Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Freddie Freeman's quickness has fallen off this season. His 26.69 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.11 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.


In today's game, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.1% rate (97th percentile).

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.


Game Trends

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 74 of their last 131 games (+17.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 58 away games (+9.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+15.00 Units / 214% ROI)


Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.96 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 6.4

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+270
5% MIA
-346
95% LAD

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-110
18% UN
8.5/-110
82% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/+130
2% MIA
-1.5/-155
98% LAD

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIA
Team Stats
LAD
4.18
ERA
4.26
.242
Batting Avg Against
.239
1.28
WHIP
1.24
.302
BABIP
.288
8.3%
BB%
7.8%
25.2%
K%
23.0%
72.5%
LOB%
70.6%
.262
Batting Avg
.252
.402
SLG
.456
.719
OPS
.795
.317
OBP
.339
MIA
Team Records
LAD
10-19
Home
19-11
10-18
Road
17-11
18-19
vRHP
21-15
2-18
vLHP
15-7
10-21
vs>.500
17-10
10-16
vs<.500
19-12
5-5
Last10
5-5
10-10
Last20
11-9
14-16
Last30
19-11
R. Muñoz
W. Buehler
N/A
Innings
65.0
N/A
GS
12
N/A
W-L
6-3
N/A
ERA
4.02
N/A
K/9
8.03
N/A
BB/9
2.35
N/A
HR/9
1.11
N/A
LOB%
74.9%
N/A
HR/FB%
12.7%
N/A
FIP
3.80
N/A
xFIP
3.64

R. Muñoz

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

W. Buehler

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 DET
Rodriguez N/A
W6-3 N/A
5
6
0
0
5
1
57-92
4/25 ARI
Kelly N/A
W4-0 N/A
9
3
0
0
10
0
75-108
4/19 ATL
Fried N/A
L1-3 N/A
5
8
3
3
2
1
58-79
4/14 CIN
Cessa N/A
W9-3 N/A
5.2
5
2
2
4
3
60-98
4/8 COL
Freeland N/A
W5-3 N/A
5
4
2
2
5
2
53-78

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIA LAD
MIA LAD
+205
-270
+270
-346
+220
-270
+270
-340
+215
-260
+270
-335
+215
-265
+275
-345
+210
-260
+275
-350
+220
-275
+260
-350
+220
-275
+260
-350
Open
Current
Book
MIA LAD
MIA LAD
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-122)
+1.5 (+129)
-1.5 (-159)
+1.5 (+102)
-1.5 (-122)
+1.5 (+136)
-1.5 (-162)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (+132)
-1.5 (-160)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-122)
+1.5 (+125)
-1.5 (-157)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (+148)
-1.5 (-175)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (+130)
-1.5 (-160)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-130)
+2.5 (-115)
-2.5 (-105)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-109)
8.5 (-114)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-114)
8.5 (-106)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-104)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)