Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees Prediction & Picks 6/9/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: June 9, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers
  • Luis Gil - Yankees

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

Baseball fans are in for a treat on June 9, 2024, as the New York Yankees host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. Both teams are having stellar seasons, with the Yankees boasting a 45-21 record and the Dodgers not far behind at 41-25. This game is the third in the series, and the Dodgers dominated the Yankees 11-3 in their last outing on June 8.

The Yankees will send Luis Gil to the mound, who has been impressive this season with an 8-1 record and a sparkling 1.82 ERA. However, Gil's 3.56 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky so far. He'll face a potent Dodgers lineup that ranks 1st in MLB in offense and is particularly dangerous with the long ball, ranking 3rd in home runs. Gil, a high-flyball pitcher, could be in for a challenging night against this power-heavy lineup.

On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with Tyler Glasnow, who has been nothing short of elite. Glasnow has a solid 6-4 record and a 2.93 ERA, but his 2.40 xERA indicates he's been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better. Glasnow's ability to rack up strikeouts (7.3 projected for today) will be crucial against a Yankees offense that ranks 2nd in MLB.

Aaron Judge has been the standout for the Yankees this season, hitting .298 with 23 home runs and a 1.117 OPS. Judge has been on fire recently, batting .474 with a 1.643 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani has been equally impressive, batting .311 with 15 home runs and a .950 OPS.

One area where the Dodgers have a clear edge is the bullpen. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Dodgers' bullpen ranks 9th, while the Yankees' bullpen is just 23rd. This discrepancy could be pivotal in a close game.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers have a 55% chance to win this game, slightly higher than their implied win probability of 52%. This projection underscores the Dodgers' slight edge in what is expected to be a tightly contested game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tyler Glasnow has relied on his non-fastballs 13.4% less often this season (43.1%) than he did last season (56.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Shohei Ohtani's 19.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) grades out in the 100th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2415 rpm) has been quite a bit worse than than his seasonal rate (2465 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Alex Verdugo's speed has fallen off this season. His 27.26 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.48 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 36 games (+18.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+6.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 33 games (+17.15 Units / 23% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.11 vs New York Yankees 4.33

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