Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Picks 6/9/2024

Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies

Jun 9, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

  • Date: June 9, 2024
  • Venue: Busch Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Ty Blach - Rockies
    • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Rockies 160, Cardinals -185
Runline: Rockies 1.5 -135, Cardinals -1.5 115
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Colorado Rockies - 37% Colorado Rockies - 30.81%
St. Louis Cardinals - 63% St. Louis Cardinals - 69.19%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals are set to host the Colorado Rockies on June 9, 2024, at Busch Stadium. This National League matchup features two struggling teams, with the Cardinals holding a 30-32 record and the Rockies faring worse at 22-41. Both teams are not currently contending for a playoff spot, making this game more about pride and performance improvement.

Looking at the pitching matchup, the Cardinals will send right-hander Andre Pallante to the mound. Pallante has had a rough season, sporting a 6.16 ERA and a 1-2 record. However, his 5.14 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Colorado counters with lefty Ty Blach, who has an average 4.54 ERA but a 5.13 xERA indicating that he’s been somewhat fortunate this season and might regress.

Offensively, both teams rank poorly in overall production. The Cardinals’ offense is ranked 22nd in MLB, and while their team batting average is a slightly better 19th, they are 22nd in home runs and 26th in stolen bases. The Rockies' offense isn't much better, ranking 21st overall, but they do manage a 12th place in team batting average. However, they lag in power with a 26th place ranking in home runs.

In terms of recent performance, Nolan Gorman has been the standout for the Cardinals over the last week, hitting .346 with four home runs and seven RBIs. Elias Diaz has been the Rockies' best hitter over the same period, posting a .348 average and a .988 OPS.

One key area to watch is the bullpen performance. The Cardinals boast the 6th best bullpen according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Rockies sit last at 30th. This disparity could play a crucial role late in the game.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees the Cardinals as a significant favorite, giving them a 69% chance to win. This is higher than the betting market's implied probability of 62%, suggesting potential value in betting on St. Louis. The projections also anticipate a high-scoring affair, with the Cardinals expected to score around 5.02 runs and the Rockies 3.44 runs. This aligns with the game total set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially lively contest despite the teams' overall struggles.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies outfield defense projects as the best among every team on the slate today.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

St. Louis's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Adael Amador, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

  • This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Given that flyball pitchers hold a sizeable edge over flyball batters, Andre Pallante and his 59.9% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in today's game going up against 2 opposing FB batters.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's game, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.5% rate (100th percentile).

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+3.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 games (+13.70 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 23 away games (+5.95 Units / 23% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.31 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.82

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+145
12% COL
-172
88% STL

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-108
32% UN
8.0/-112
68% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-142
4% COL
-1.5/+120
96% STL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
COL
Team Stats
STL
5.51
ERA
4.59
.277
Batting Avg Against
.268
1.51
WHIP
1.43
.311
BABIP
.322
9.3%
BB%
8.3%
18.0%
K%
20.4%
67.7%
LOB%
69.8%
.248
Batting Avg
.259
.399
SLG
.436
.707
OPS
.770
.307
OBP
.333
COL
Team Records
STL
16-23
Home
19-15
11-27
Road
19-22
20-36
vRHP
26-28
7-14
vLHP
12-9
15-18
vs>.500
11-15
12-32
vs<.500
27-22
3-7
Last10
7-3
6-14
Last20
11-9
12-18
Last30
18-12
T. Blach
A. Pallante
37.0
Innings
47.0
5
GS
0
1-1
W-L
3-1
4.14
ERA
4.79
3.65
K/9
6.89
1.95
BB/9
4.02
1.22
HR/9
0.77
73.5%
LOB%
70.6%
11.9%
HR/FB%
26.7%
5.03
FIP
4.38
5.13
xFIP
3.79
.303
AVG
.279
9.3%
K%
17.4%
4.9%
BB%
10.1%
5.41
SIERA
3.29

T. Blach

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/10 LAN
Buehler -329
L3-7 10.5
2.1
9
6
6
3
1
43-64
9/3 TBA
Richards -277
W4-2 9.5
5
2
2
2
2
4
44-75
8/23 TBA
Richards -181
L1-7 10.5
4
9
7
7
2
2
49-86
8/18 BOS
Eovaldi -289
L7-13 12
5.1
5
5
5
6
3
56-92
8/12 NYA
Green -322
L8-11 11
4
7
7
6
4
3
43-76

A. Pallante

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
COL STL
COL STL
Consensus
+160
-190
+145
-172
+150
-180
+145
-175
+160
-190
+144
-172
+150
-180
+145
-175
+150
-178
+143
-170
+150
-185
+145
-175
Open
Current
Book
COL STL
COL STL
Consensus
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+113)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+121)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+116)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-157)
-1.5 (+117)
+1.5 (-157)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+115)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (-106)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (-102)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (+100)