Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals Pick For 6/9/2024

Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners

Jun 9, 2024

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals Details

  • Date: June 9, 2024
  • Venue: Kauffman Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • George Kirby - Mariners
    • Cole Ragans - Royals

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Mariners 100, Royals -120
Runline: Mariners 1.5 -205, Royals -1.5 175
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -110

Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Seattle Mariners - 48% Seattle Mariners - 42.02%
Kansas City Royals - 52% Kansas City Royals - 57.98%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners gear up for the third game of their series on June 9, 2024, the stakes remain high for both teams. The Royals, with a solid 39-26 record, are enjoying a great season and look to continue their momentum against the 36-30 Mariners, who have had an above-average year. The Royals took the first two games of the series, including a decisive 8-4 victory on June 8, in which they exceeded the betting market's expectations.

Kansas City will send Cole Ragans to the mound, who has proven to be a critical asset for the team. According to advanced statistics, Ragans ranks as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB, with a strong 3.21 ERA and an elite 2.26 FIP, suggesting he's been a bit unlucky and could improve further. Ragans's high strikeout rate (29.4%) aligns well against Seattle's offense, which leads MLB in strikeouts. His recent form has been impressive, allowing just 1 earned run over 6 innings in his last start on June 2.

On the other side, the Mariners will counter with George Kirby, who has been great this season as the 21st best starting pitcher according to the advanced-stat power rankings. Kirby's ERA stands at 4.05, but his 3.24 xFIP suggests that he, too, has been somewhat unlucky. However, Kirby may face challenges against a Royals offense ranked 8th in MLB and featuring Bobby Witt Jr., who boasts a .322 batting average and .937 OPS this season.

Despite Seattle's strong home run potential (8th in MLB), their overall offensive struggles—ranking 24th in batting—could prove problematic. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Royals a 58% win probability today, higher than the 52% implied by betting markets, potentially offering value on Kansas City.

Both bullpens have been weak, with the Royals ranked 22nd and the Mariners 25th, indicating that late-game scoring could be crucial. With Kansas City riding high and Ragans on the mound, the Royals are poised to secure a series sweep in what promises to be a tightly contested American League matchup at Kauffman Stadium.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Out of all SPs, George Kirby's fastball velocity of 94.9 mph ranks in the 84th percentile this year.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Seattle Mariners have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dylan Moore, Cal Raleigh, Seby Zavala).

  • Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to league average, Cole Ragans has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 3.5 adjusted pitches each outing.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Salvador Perez has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 24.24 ft/sec to 24.73 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

  • Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen projects as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the league.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 29 games at home (+12.75 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+3.85 Units / 11% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+15.15 Units / 29% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 3.95 vs Kansas City Royals 4.37

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+117
22% SEA
-137
78% KC

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/+105
24% UN
7.0/-125
76% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-185
6% SEA
-1.5/+154
94% KC

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
SEA
Team Stats
KC
3.72
ERA
5.20
.233
Batting Avg Against
.260
1.18
WHIP
1.41
.287
BABIP
.304
7.0%
BB%
9.1%
24.6%
K%
20.4%
72.3%
LOB%
67.1%
.237
Batting Avg
.244
.403
SLG
.394
.719
OPS
.695
.315
OBP
.301
SEA
Team Records
KC
27-12
Home
25-14
16-19
Road
16-18
29-23
vRHP
33-27
14-8
vLHP
8-5
13-17
vs>.500
12-19
30-14
vs<.500
29-13
7-3
Last10
4-6
15-5
Last20
7-13
19-11
Last30
16-14
G. Kirby
C. Ragans
144.2
Innings
N/A
23
GS
N/A
10-8
W-L
N/A
3.11
ERA
N/A
8.15
K/9
N/A
0.87
BB/9
N/A
0.93
HR/9
N/A
75.8%
LOB%
N/A
9.7%
HR/FB%
N/A
3.18
FIP
N/A
3.57
xFIP
N/A
.238
AVG
N/A
23.0%
K%
N/A
2.5%
BB%
N/A
3.65
SIERA
N/A

G. Kirby

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

C. Ragans

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
SEA KC
SEA KC
Consensus
-104
-112
+117
-137
-105
-115
+114
-135
-104
-112
+116
-136
-105
-113
+118
-139
-105
-115
+118
-140
-105
-115
+115
-135
Open
Current
Book
SEA KC
SEA KC
Consensus
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-197)
+1.5 (-194)
-1.5 (+159)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-198)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+154)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-194)
+1.5 (-184)
-1.5 (+152)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-200)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+163)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+175)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+180)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-106)
7.0 (-125)
7.0 (+105)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-112)
7.0 (-125)
7.0 (+105)
7.5 (-114)
7.5 (-106)
7.5 (-102)
7.5 (-120)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-122)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.0 (-125)
7.0 (+105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)