Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers Prediction & Picks 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Angels
  • Mason Englert - Tigers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on August 28, 2024, the stakes are somewhat muted given both teams' struggles this season. The Tigers sit at 67-66, slightly above .500, while the Angels languish with a record of 54-78. Despite their subpar performance, the Tigers recently secured a convincing 6-2 victory over the Angels just a day prior, which could provide a psychological edge going into this matchup.

On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start Mason Englert, who has had a rocky season, posting a 5.95 ERA and ranking as the 272nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Englert has primarily been used out of the bullpen, making only 11 appearances with a 1-0 record. His projections suggest he will struggle, averaging just 2.5 innings pitched, allowing 1.3 earned runs, and striking out only 2.3 batters.

In contrast, the Angels will counter with Griffin Canning, who has been equally ineffective, with a 5.18 ERA and a 4-11 record this season. Canning's last outing was particularly troublesome, as he allowed 7 earned runs in just 4 innings. His projections indicate he’ll pitch around 5.2 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs, which could keep the game competitive.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 23rd in MLB, and while they’ve struggled to generate runs consistently, their best hitter, Riley Greene, has shown flashes of brilliance. Meanwhile, the Angels, despite ranking 25th overall, have some pop in their lineup, with Zach Neto leading the way.

With the Tigers favored at a moneyline of -140 and a projected team total of 4.81 runs, they might be poised to capitalize on their recent form against a struggling Angels team. The projections suggest a slight edge for the Tigers, making this a game to watch for bettors looking for value.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning has utilized his change-up 5.5% more often this year (27.3%) than he did last year (21.8%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Mickey Moniak has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Mason Englert's 90.2-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 12th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Dillon Dingler's average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 87.5-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 80.7-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Parker Meadows hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 44 games (+20.20 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• Niko Kavadas has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 42% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.58 vs Detroit Tigers 4.92

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.